05-05-2022 Planning Commission Packet

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Lennar – Little Canada Traffic Analysis April 25, 2022 Page 8 Traffic Projections To analyze intersection lane configuration and traffic control needs projected traffic volumes were determined for the area. Future year projections were prepared for 2025 which represents the year after the proposed Lennar residential development is completed and, 2040 which represents the city’s Comprehensive Plan planning horizon. The following sections outline the anticipated background traffic growth, traffic generation from the proposed development, as well as the traffic distribution and projected traffic volumes. Background (Non-Site) Traffic Growth Traffic growth in the vicinity of a proposed development area will occur between existing conditions and any given future year due to other development within the region. This background growth must be accounted for and included in future year traffic forecasts. Traffic for the No-Build conditions was estimate assuming compounded growth rates which were obtained from Ramsey County. The background traffic growth rate was estimated to be 0.5% per year for projecting traffic from existing conditions to the 2025 and 2040 analysis years. Proposed Development Area Traffic Generation The estimated trip generation from the proposed Lennar residential development project is shown below in Table 3. The trip generation used to estimate the proposed site traffic is based on rates for other similar land uses as documented in the Institute of Transportation Engineers Trip Generation Manual, 10th Edition. The table shows the daily, AM peak hour and PM peak hour trip generation for the proposed site development. Table 3 – Development Site Trip Generation Planned Use Size ADT AM Peak PM Peak Total In Out Total In Out Multi-Family Residential 178 units 968 64 17 47 78 48 31 Source: Institute of Transportation Engineers Trip Generation Manual Proposed Development Area Traffic Distribution Proposed site generated trips were distributed to the adjacent roadway system based on several factors including anticipated origins and destinations for the planned land use, existing travel patterns and engineering judgement. Based on these parameters the following general traffic distribution was used to distribute the projected traffic volumes to the area roadway network: • 14% to / from the north on Edgerton Street (CSAH 58) • 8% to / from the east on CR D • 8% to / from the south on Edgerton Street (CSAH 58) • 65% to / from the west on Little Canada Road (CSAH 21) • 5% to / from the east on Little Canada Road (CSAH 21) Projected Traffic Volumes Traffic forecasts were prepared for the no-build and build conditions. The traffic forecasts were prepared by adding the projected annual background traffic growth to the existing traffic volumes to determine the 2025 and 2040 no-build condition. The 2025 and 2040 build conditions were prepared by adding the anticipated Lennar development site traffic generation to the no-build volumes. Figure 5 - Figure 8 shows the projected no-build and build traffic volumes.