09-13-1995 Council Agenda - Laserfiche WebLink

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Appendix A Results of Demographic and Market Research Demographics In order to analyze the demographic and market factors affecting the demand for housing in Little Canada, a study area was selected that includes the communities of Little Canada, Roseville, Vadnais Heights, North St. Paul, and parts of Maplewood, Shoreview, and St. Paul. Little Canada is a nearly fully - developed first -tier suburb of St. Paul and most future development will occur as a result of redevelopment rather than new development on raw land. During the 1980's, Little Canada's population increased by 1,869 persons, a growth rate of 26.3 percent; during the 1990's, Litde Canada's population is projected to increase by 479 persons, a growth rate of only 5.3 percent. Vadnais Heights, with a population growth rate of 116.0 percent rate during the 1980's, was the only study area community to exceed Little Canada's population growth at that time. Conversely, Roseville lost 2,335 persons or 6.5 percent during the 1980's. Overall, the Little Canada study area gained 8,778 persons, or 7.7 percent, during the 1980's and is projected to gain nearly the same number, 8,520 persons or 6.9 percent, during the 1990's. Population estimates as of 1993 for all study area communities (1993) revealed a population of 125,919 persons, an increase of roughly 830 persons annually over the past three years. From 2000 to 2010, Litde Canada is projected to add another 300 persons, or 3.2 percent. This compares to projected growth of 1,500 persons (4.2 percent) for Roseville, 800 persons (5.5 percent) for Vadnais Heights, and 600 persons (2.3 percent) for the northern part of St. Paul. The study area is projected to add 3,300 persons or 2.5 percent during this same period. The study area population grew at a faster pace than the population of Ramsey County during the 1980's and this trend is expected to continue during the 1990's. During the 2000's, however, the study area's and Ramsey County's population growth rates are projected to be nearly equal with most of the north suburban communities becoming nearly fully developed. Little Canada added 966 households during the 1980's, a growth rate of 32.9 percent and is projected to add 348 households during the 1990's, a growth rate of 8.9 percent. Once again, Vadnais Heights, with a household growth rate of 123.0 percent, was the only study area conununity to exceed Little Canada's household growth rate of 33.0 percent during the 1980's. The northern portion of Maplewood also gained a Appendix A [Draft - September 1, 1995] Page 102 Page A+1