09-13-1995 Council Agenda - Laserfiche WebLink

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Retail The retail analysis examined population growth in three trade areas (one, two, and five miles). The analysis revealed that the population of Trade Area 1 (one mile) increased by 518 persons during the 1980's, a 5.0 percent growth rate. The population of Trade Area 2 (two miles) increased by 1,584 persons, a 5.9 percent growth rate. The population of Trade Area 3 (five miles) increased by 13,798 persons, a 7.0 percent growth rate. During most of the 1990's, these trade areas are expected to experience very little growth, between 0.3 and 1.6 percent. The greatest population growth, nu- merically and proportionally, is expected to occur in Trade Area 3 (five miles) which includes the communities of Little Canada, Roseville, Shoreview, Vadnais Heights, St. Paul, Maplewood, White Bear Lake, etc. The one -mile and two -mile radii reflect the approximate distance that most households would travel to purchase convenience and neighborhood - oriented goods and services. A five -mile radius reflects the approximate distance most households would travel to purchase destination /specialty goods and services. The retail analysis also examined household growth within one, two, and five miles. The analysis revealed that households grew at a much faster pace than did population in each of the trade areas. Table 9 (at the end of this appendix) shows that, during the 1980's, households within one mile of the Rice Street/Little Canada Road intersection increased by 720 households or 17.7 percent. Households within two miles increased by 1,687 households or 17.0 percent. Households within five miles increased by 8,918 households or 12.3 percent. During the 1990's, households within one mile are projected to increase by 3.6 percent or 174 households. Households within two miles increased by 4.3 percent or 503 households. Households within five miles increased by 3.2 percent or 2,600 households. An analysis of the age distribution for each of the retail trade areas revealed that the highest proportion of Trade Area l's population was the 25 to 44 age cohort with 33.5 percent. Proportionally, the second largest age cohort in Trade Area 1 was persons age 45 to 64 with 23.5 percent. The highest proportion of Trade Area 2's population was in the age cohort 25 to 44 years with 33.6 percent. The second largest age cohort at 24.5 percent was persons age 19 and under. Similar percentages are shown for Trade Area 3. Among the three trade areas, Trade Area 3 had a higher proportion of persons age 19 and Under than the other two trade areas Trade Area 1 had the highest proportion of persons age 45 to 64 (23.5 percent). As of 1994, Trade Area 2 was estimated to have the highest proportion of owner households, however, with 67.2 percent. Trade Area 1 was estimated to have 64.1 per- cent owner households and Trade Area 3 was estimated to have 64.5 percent owner households. Appendix A [Draft - September 1, 1995] Page 105 Page A❖4