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NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED CONSULTANTS, INC. <br />4800 Olson Memorial Highway, Suite 202, Golden Valley, MN 65422 <br />Telephone: 763.231 .2555 Facsimile: 763. 231 .2561 plannersc?nacplanning.com <br />MEMORANDUM <br />TO: Mayor Blesener and Little Canada City Council <br />FROM: Stephen Grittman <br />DATE: March 21, 2014 <br />RE: Little Canada — Population Projections <br />FILE NO: 758.10 —13.09 <br />Background <br />Last fall, Metropolitan Council has published preliminary population projections for 2040 <br />for all metro area communities. The projections vary widely around the region, showing <br />a dramatic decline for some, and a dramatic increase for others. Little Canada's <br />projection for 2040 is shown as 13,900, up by 2,600 people over the previous 2030 <br />projection. Household growth is projected to be up by nearly 1,300 households during <br />that period. <br />After a significant outcry from many metro area cities, Met Council announced that they <br />would be fine - tuning their process and methodology, and reissuing revised forecasts <br />this spring. Those forecasts were prepared and published recently. Oddly, while Little <br />Canada's housing forecast declined only a little (by 100 fewer households than the fall <br />forecast), the population projection actually increase by 100. Thus, the forecast shows <br />Little Canada's 2040 population forecast at 14,000, an increase over current (April <br />2012) estimates of 4,000 people, and 1,700 households. <br />There is, as with last fall's initial projection, no way to interpret these numbers in any <br />way other than to assume that Little Canada would need to increase its high density <br />housing supply dramatically to reach those figures. Met Council intends to finalize its <br />projections by May as part of its "Thrive 2040" regional plan. <br />We do not believe, short of a dramatic shift in city policy, the proposed figures have any <br />basis in local land use realities. We will be working with staff to formulate a formal <br />response to Met Council. It will be important to address this issue as best we can at this <br />stage, since the forecasts set the stage for the housing and population targets Met <br />