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2040 COMP PLAN Lino Lakes 2040 Comprehensive Plan Update Council staff and are hopeful that it will not create an issue for compliance with regional policy in the plan update. If it does, we will recommend retaining the current planning designations for these six areas. Consistency with Regional Planning Policies The Metropolitan Land Planning Act requires cities to submit their Comprehensive Plans to the Metropolitan Council for review for conformance with regional systems plans, consistency with Council policies, and compatibility with adjacent and affected governmental units. The key issues for the Land Use and Housing plans are whether the plan responds to the growth forecasts, meets goals for overall development density, and accommodates the city's share of the regional affordable housing need. Growth Forecasts—The 2030 Comprehensive Plan anticipated that Lino Lake's population would increase to 22,500 by 2010 to 26,300 by 2020 and to 30,700 by 2030. Growth has lagged the forecasts, largely due to the Great Recession of 2007-2009 which slowed development throughout the region in the late 2000's and early 2010's. The 2040 forecasts are similar to the 2030 forecasts, anticipating that the city will reach 31,100 population by 2040. Approximately 1,700 new households are expected between 2020 and 2030 and about 1,600 new households are expected between 2030 and 2040. To determine whether the city can accommodate the forecasts, the city's existing land use inventory was combined with the development staging plan and natural resource information to determine the amount of land available to accommodate projected growth. The city must ensure that there is enough land area to accommodate the forecast for new households and employment growth. The inventory showed that between 6,152 and 11,162 residential units could be built at the density allowed by the Comprehensive Plan between 2020 and 2040, more than enough to meet the projected demand of 3,300 units. The city must also accommodate the forecasted growth in employment, which is expected to increase from 3,944 in 2014 to 6,000 in 2040, an increase of about 50%. According to the 2017 land use inventory, the city has about 405 net acres of existing commercial and industrial land uses. A 50% increase would require roughly 200 acres. The draft plan includes about 540 net acres within the 2040 growth area. Overall Development Density—The city must also demonstrate that it meets the regional density policy of 3 to 5 residential units per net acre in "Emerging Suburban Edge" communities. The Metropolitan Council has determined that lower density development does not make efficient use of its investments in the regional sewer system. Under state law, the Metropolitan Council has authority to require cities to modify their comprehensive plan if there is an adverse impact on a regional system. The Metropolitan Council has a complex method for determining compliance with the density policy. The residential density of the proposed 2040 plan, with the changes describe above, was calculated using their process. The plan would comply with the policy, allowing a minimum average density of exactly 3.0 units per acre. Accommodating Affordable Housing Need—The Metropolitan Council has calculated Lino Lakes' share of the region's need for low and moderate -income housing for the decade of 2021-2030 to be 515 new City Council November 6, 2017 4