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DRAFT Market Analysis Lino Lakes Comprehensive Plan Update September, 2006 Page 2 REGIONAL GROWTH CHARACTERISTICS RELATED TO RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT Introduction Housing markets can vary greatly from one community to another within a large metropolitan region such as the Twin Cities. The forces that determine what type of housing gets built, how much housing gets built, and where that housing gets built can change dramatically from decade to decade or even year to year, often resulting vastly different development experiences for individual communities such as Lino Lakes. Nonetheless, metropolitan regions are, by definition, interconnected places, and any long -term projections of the housing market at a local level must first be viewed with an understanding of historical housing market trends at the metropolitan level. This section of the report examines regional demographic and construction trends associated with the Twin Cities housing market since 1960. In this section we address overall household growth trends, changes in the age distribution, and where housing construction has been concentrated and whether it has been predominantly single- family or multifamily. Metropolitan Population and Household Growth Trends The 16- county region that incorporates the Twin Cities has grown steadily from 1960 to 2000 and is projected to continue its steady rate of growth through 2030. The chart below indicates that in 1960 there were just over 500,000 households in the 16- county region. By 2030 it is projected the region will contain over 1.7 million households. 4,500,000 - - 4,000,000 - 3,500,000 - 3,000,000 - 2,500,000 - 2,000,000 - 1,500,000 - 1,000,000 - 500,000 - 0 Population and Households Growth Trends 16- County Twin Cities Region 1960 -2030 • Population • Households L i 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Sources: US Census of Population: 1960 -2000; M N Dept. of Admin.: State Demographic Center; WI Dept. of Admin.: Demographic Services Center. Metropolitan Age Distribution DAHLGREN SHARDLO\V ANDUBAN MepIttOtATIM 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1