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Summary of Metropolitan Trends in the Housing Market Lino Lakes Experience Lino Lakes is a rural community about 10 miles from the developing edge in Roseville and Maplewood. Lino Lakes begins to experience some traditional suburban style development as the developing edge expands to nearby Arden Hills, Shoreview, and Vadnais Heights. Lino Lakes begins period at the edge of contiguous development as adjacent communities to the south Hare nearly built out or have strong growth management policies (i.e. North Oaks). Lino Lakes experiences development commensurate with being located at the developing edge. Hugo and Forest Lake to the east and north also begin their periods of being at the developing edge. Pace of construction in Lino Lakes drops below that of 1990s even though construction throughout the metropolitan area far exceeds that of the 1990s. Important Developments /Milestones 16 -County metro area surpasses 2 million people. Interstate freeway system is introduced. Interstate freeway system is mostly developed making once rural /exurban areas more accessible. Mortgage interest rates hit record highs in the early part of the decade. I16- county metro area surpasses 3 (million people. In the core 7 -county 'region, 67,500 are consumed for 125,000 units, which is 1.85 units per acre. This compares to the 1980s when the ratio was 3.3 units per acre or the 1970s when it was 3.7 units per acre. Mortgage interest rates hit record lows in the early part of the decade. Where Development Occurred Vast majority of homes built at the developing edge, which is adjacent to the cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul.', 'Sharp increase in number of units built in developed areas, but also sharp increase in units built in exurban areas to serve the needs of younger buyers who want single - family homes but can't afford to be close to the metro core. More homes built at the developing edge than previous decade. Sharp decline in the rural /exurban areas, likely the result of increased supply containing costs for closer -in unitsand a fuel crises in the early part of the decade. Homebuilding rebounds in the rural /exurban areas of the region. Tremendous growth in rural /exurban areas, but also a strong rebound in the developed core as rising land prices and demogrpahics create a market for "urban" style living. Impact of Age Distribution Strong growth in the number of school - aged children increases demand for affordable single - family homes among young families. Strong growth in college -age persons increases demand for rental housing. Strong growth in number of younger adults results in strong demand for rental housing and very affordable single - family homes. Very strong growth in the age groups skewed toward single - family homes. Significant growth beginning to occur among age groups in the highest income years. Absolute decline in the age groups skewed to renting; age groups skewed toward single - family housing account for all the population growth. Strong growth spread among most age groups; young age groups rebound (Baby Boomlet) and seniors grow substantially as well. Age groups in the peak eaming years (45 to 64 • row as well. Level of Pent -Up Demand Slight pent -up demand by end of decade. Slight oversupply of housing by end of decade. Significant oversupply of housing units by end of decade. Oversupply of 1980s leads to less construction in the 1990s, which results in huge pent -up demand by end of decade, especially since the number of in- migrants to the region far exceeds projections. Pent -up demand at end of 90s leads to rush among builders to build more units, which results in current oversupply. t�0 C.� m , n ro 0) 0) N m CO 0 1) C • N C = CO 2 0 t0 f0 M co 0 0) of 0i 00 00 co ao 0) (0 0) ri v- a V CU Q 0 O o 0) N O 1` 0) 0 O co 0) N O 0) 0) 2000- 2005 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1