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• <br />• <br />• <br />9 <br />3. Typical to many affordable housing projects, there is a comprehensive 15 year risk event <br />wherein a series of circumstances will shortly impact the project's economic well being: <br />o the TIF assistance will terminate — refer to TIF agreement with City terminating <br />assistance in 2012. <br />o the existing 1st mortgage loan comes due in 2012 and relied on TIF income for debt <br />service coverage <br />o the MHFA restrictions become optional in 2011 <br />o the need for investing in physical replacements increases — refer to CNA report <br />4. While there is no certain implication to the end of the first fifteen year period of operation, the <br />proposed acquisition and refinancing plan manages and alleviates the year fifteen risks prior to <br />waiting until the event takes place. <br />Assuming the TIF assistance expires and the existing 1St mortgage note comes due, the only <br />option is to refinance the project may be with a commercial bank which may mean less <br />favorable terms, much higher rates, and loss of TIF income. <br />Here is how the proposed refinancing plan lessens the risk of project failure coming <br />from the 15 year event and places the project on a superior set of economic principles <br />long terms to serve the senior tenants desired by all. <br />To manage the loss of TIF assistance: the new loan assumes no income from TIF <br />and underwrites the project only on affordable, restrictive rents currently required. <br />• To manage the future risk of higher interest rates and unfavorable commercial <br />bank terms: the new loan is at a very low 4.5% rate, and fixed for 35 years. In fact, the <br />buyer is paying over $125,000 in prepayment penalties to pay -off the current mortgage <br />and not to wait for refinance in 2012. Most nationally recognized economic projections <br />call for long term interest rates to significantly increase in future years. Our new annual <br />financing is some $20,000 Tess in debt service costs than the current mortgage <br />obligation. <br />• The track record of FHA insured multifamily loans is excellent with less <br />likelihood to fail than commercial bank loans. To the best of our knowledge only two <br />loans have ever been foreclosed and none on senior housing. Our lender's record is <br />only one foreclosure in five states. <br />