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City of Lino Lakes, Minnesota
<br />Legacy Project
<br />April 30, 2008
<br />Page 2
<br />Assumptions for the Revised Analysis
<br />For the worksession, Springsted conducted sensitivity scenarios to measure the affect of varying amounts and timing
<br />of development on the Districts future obligations. The base assumptions used in each of the scenarios include:
<br />• Pay 2008 tax rate of 92.138%
<br />• Actual tax increment received in pay 2007 is $5,948
<br />• Increment is reduced by an administrative fee of 5% annually
<br />• Pooled TIF is equal to $189,209 over 5 years
<br />• MSA funds equal to $2,259,900 over 10 years
<br />Scenario 1
<br />Scenario 1 uses the following assumptions in addition to the base assumptions shown above:
<br />• Current value of the site includes the Hotel and Tax Credit Housing at a total of $11.2M, as
<br />guaranteed in the minimum assessed value agreement
<br />• No assumption of market value inflation to the current value of $11.2M, until pay 2012, then at 2%
<br />per year
<br />• Additional residential town home development construction schedule is to build 33 units in 2011, 33
<br />units in 2012, and 34 units in 2013 for a total value of $20.2M
<br />• Maximum value at full build -out of the site will be $31.4M of mixed use development - as per the
<br />original TIF Plan estimates
<br />o It is important to note the actual projected build -out is greater than $60M, but no value greater
<br />than $31.4M was ever assumed as part of the original analysis or this updated analysis
<br />Collect
<br />Year
<br />(1)
<br />2006
<br />2007
<br />2008
<br />2009
<br />2010
<br />2011
<br />2012
<br />2013
<br />2014
<br />2015
<br />2016
<br />2017
<br />2018
<br />2019
<br />2020
<br />2021
<br />2022
<br />2023
<br />Pooled MSA
<br />TIF Funds
<br />1 -10
<br />(3) (4)
<br />39,865 50,000
<br />37,336 245,500
<br />37,336 245,500
<br />37,336 245,500
<br />37,336 245,500
<br />O 245,500
<br />O 245,500
<br />O 245,500
<br />0 245,500
<br />O 245,500
<br />O 0
<br />O 0
<br />O 0
<br />O 0
<br />O 0
<br />O 0
<br />O 0
<br />189,209 2,259,500
<br />GO TIF TIF TIF
<br />TIF Interfund Interfund Developer
<br />Bonds Loan Loan Note
<br />$4.215M $950K $556K $1.0M
<br />(6) (7) (8) (9)
<br />92,298 0 0 0
<br />334,526 0 0 0
<br />337,926 0 0 0
<br />370,926 0 0 0
<br />412,326 0 0 0
<br />421,726 0 0 0
<br />470,326 0 0 0
<br />471,526 0 0 0
<br />477,126 0 0 0
<br />481,926 0 0 0
<br />255,926 0 0 0
<br />258,326 0 0 0
<br />265,326 0 0 0
<br />271,726 0 0 0
<br />277,526 0 0 0
<br />287,481 0 0 0
<br />291,550 0 0 0
<br />5,778,496 0 0 0
<br />Average Annual
<br />Investment Surplus
<br />Earnings (Deficit)
<br />0.00%
<br />(11) (12)
<br />0 3,198
<br />0 24,968
<br />O 21,568
<br />O (11,432)
<br />0 (52,832)
<br />O (97,578)
<br />O (85,401)
<br />O (24,607)
<br />O 33,025
<br />O 33,975
<br />O 20,340
<br />0 23,921
<br />O 23,023
<br />O 22,847
<br />O 23,395
<br />O 19,915
<br />O 22,450
<br />O 775
<br />This table results in a deficit in years 2010 - 2014, but an overall fund balance in 2023 of $775. Although this
<br />scenario may fund the GO TIF Bond costs shown here overall, it will require additional MSA funds in the deficit years,
<br />which would subsequently be repaid with future tax increment.
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