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<br />Although all projections of future growth are rooted in a set of assumptions that are likely to
<br />change over time, projecting the distribution of households by tenure status can be especially
<br />problematic because so many variables contribute to a household's willingness and /or ability to
<br />own their housing. As a result, certain key assumptions were made in preparing Table 4 -4 that
<br />do not necessarily reflect real world conditions. For instance, it was assumed that none of units
<br />that existed in 2000 will be demolished by 2030. However, to attempt such an estimate invites
<br />the potential for even greater error. Therefore, the figures presented in Table 4 -4 should be
<br />viewed only as a guide for how units will be distributed.
<br />Table 4 -4
<br />Distribution of Occupied Housing Units by Type
<br />Based on Potential Growth
<br />2000 U.S. Census
<br />Neighborhoods
<br />Lino Lakes Total West of Park
<br />Type of Occupied No. of Pct. of No. of Pct. of No. of Pct. of
<br />Housing Unit Units Units Units Units Units Units
<br />Neighborhoods
<br />East of Park
<br />2030 Distribution of Households by Unit Type
<br />Lino Lakes Total
<br />Neighborhoods West of
<br />Park
<br />Neighborhoods East of
<br />Park
<br />Pct. of Pct. of Pct. of
<br />Low High Units Low High Units Low High Units
<br />Owner Occupied
<br />Single- Family, detached 4,351 89.8% 1,742 88.9% 2,609 90.4% 6,940 - 7,260 54.1% 2,470 - 2,550 58.4% 4,470 -4,710 52.0%
<br />Multifamily 216 4.5% 101 5.2% 115 4.0% 3,560 - 4,140 30.9% 1,070 - 1,230 28.1% 2,490 - 2,910 32.2%
<br />Mobile Homes 94 1.9% 0 0.0% 94 3.3% 94 - 94 0.7% 0 - 0 0.0% 94 - 94 1.0%
<br />Own subtotal 4,661 96.2% 1,843 94.0% 2,818 97.6% 10,594 - 11,494 85.7% 3,540 - 3,780 86.5% 7,054 - 7,714 85.2%
<br />Renter Occupied
<br />Single - Family, detached 67 1.4% 42 2.1% 25 0.9% 100 - 110 0.8% 60 - 60 1.4% 40 - 50 0.6%
<br />Multifamily 56 1.2% 28 1.4% 28 1.0% 1,020 - 1,220 9.1% 290 - 340 7.8% 730 - 880 9.7%
<br />Age Restricted 47 1.0% 47 2.4% 0 0.0% 480 - 580 4.3% 160 - 190 4.3% 320 - 390 4.3%
<br />Mobile Homes 15 0.3% 0 0.0% 15 0.5% 15 - 15 0.1% 0 - 0 0.0% 15 - 15 0.2%
<br />Rent subtotal 185 3.8% 117 6.0% 68 2.4% 1,615 - 1,925 14.3% 510 - 590 13.5% 1,105 - 1,335 14.8%
<br />Grand Total
<br />4,846 100% 1,960 100% 2,886 100% 12,209 - 13,419 100% 4,050 - 4,370 100% 8,159 - 9,049 100%
<br />Note: multifamily includes twinhomes, townhomes, and rowhomes, as well as multistory buildings with a common entrance.
<br />Sources: U.S. Census; DSU /Bonestroo
<br />Housing Forecasts and Land Use Plan Capacity
<br />Based on the results of the market forecasts, the City of Lino Lakes prepared revised housing
<br />forecasts, on which the City's sewer, water, stormwater, and transportation infrastructure plans
<br />are based (Table 4 -5). These revised forecasts are based on the market forecasts, but have been
<br />adjusted somewhat to account for the recent slowdown in housing construction.
<br />Table 4 -5: Revised Market -Based Household Forecasts
<br />Household
<br />2000
<br />2010
<br />2020
<br />2030
<br />Forecast
<br />Total Households
<br />4,857
<br />6,500
<br />10,250
<br />12,600
<br />The revised forecasts result in additional 6,600 households in Lino Lakes by 2030. These units
<br />will be accommodated at a variety of housing densities and styles. A detailed summary of
<br />housing growth by land use type, density, and proposed staging is presented in Table 4 -6 to
<br />demonstrate how the future land use plan will accommodate forecasted housing growth.
<br />4 -13
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