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• • • Projected Demand for Retail in Lino Lakes Based on non - residential building permit data from 2002 to 2004 compiled by the Metropolitan Council, the 7- County Twin Cities Metro Area has absorbed approximately 11.1 million square feet of retail space. This translates to an annual average of about 3.7 million square feet. Demand for retail space is strongly correlated with household growth, which drives the amount of potential consumer spending that can occur in or near Lino Lakes. Therefore, much of the forecasted demand for retail in Lino Lakes will be related to overall household growth. Although certain forms of retail, such as regional shopping centers, can draw customers from a very large trade area, the majority of retail space is geared toward neighborhood residents who make frequent trips to regular stores within a convenient distance of their residence. Based on estimated household growth from 2002 to 2004, which averaged 15,200 new households per year, the amount of new retail needed for every new household is approximately 250 square feet. Thus, as Lino Lakes' household base grows so will its need for additional retail space. Not every new household added in Lino Lakes will directly translate to 250 new square feet of retail space. Some new residents will travel outside of Lino Lakes to nearby retail destinations for their needs. In addition, it is projected that much of the future household growth in Lino Lakes will be dominated by older households seeking to downsize their living space. Such households often consume far less than younger households because they no longer have children and already have many household items in place from previous homes. Taking these limiting factors into consideration, it is more realistic to think that 150 square feet of retail space per household is a more appropriate assumption than 250 square feet of space. Therefore, at 150 feet of retail space demanded for every new household projected to be added in Lino Lakes over the next 25 years, the following is anticipated: Table 5 -5: Retail Space Needs Again, breaking the projected demand into east and west of the Park yields the following: Table 5 -6: Retail Space Needs By Location West Retail 2006 -2010 90,000 2010 -2020 560,000 2020 -2030 350,000 2006 -2030 1,000,000 Again, breaking the projected demand into east and west of the Park yields the following: Table 5 -6: Retail Space Needs By Location The City of Lino Lakes has already exceeded the 2010 projected western retail growth. 5 -9 West East 2006 -2010 24,000 66,000 2010 -2020 150,000 410,000 2020 -2030 95,000 255,000 The City of Lino Lakes has already exceeded the 2010 projected western retail growth. 5 -9