05-04-2015 Council Packet - Laserfiche WebLink

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Metropolitan Council has projected the population of Lino Lakes will grow to 26,300 in 2020 and 30,700 in 20308. There is no data to suggest that an increase in population alone will cause an increase in crime. However, more residents in Lino Lakes means more traffic and more citizens with service requests such as medical incidents, house checks, vehicle lock outs, animal licenses, background checks, permits to purchase firearms, and alarm calls. An increase in population could also contribute to an increase in traffic congestion, traffic complaints, and accidents. If we do not take availability rate and development into account and staff officers based solely on population, to keep our current rate of 1.2 officers per 1,000 residents we would add 6 officers by 2020 and another 5 by 2030 for an authorized strength of 36. While we reject the notion of automatic growth and increase, we believe that it is both fiscally and ethically advantageous to provide the resources to keep ahead of the curve and focus on prevention than it is to shift to a reactive model. Return on Investment in Police Services The City of Lino Lakes has a hard earned reputation for fiscal responsibility. In keeping with that overarching principle, it is important to discuss the police elasticity of crime. There have been several studies that discuss the relationship between the number of police officers in a given area and the crime rate, but their findings are ambiguous at best. The most comprehensive study in the area was conducted by Aaron Chalfin and Justin McCrary in 2012. Chalfin and McCarary include factors and variables that are important to the City of Lino Lakes and that most other studies overlook. Chalfin and McCarary are careful to take into consideration the desire to not have government funds crowd out private precautionary spending. Chalfin and McCarary do not place the same, large value on the perception and feeling of safety that other studies do. While they are both important, the value of perception and feelings are difficult to quantify and may differ greatly from location to location. Chalfin and McCarary found, "Each dollar spent on police is associated with approximately $1.60 in reduced victimization costs, suggesting that U.S cities employ too few police." They also found that more violent and serious crimes are affected by the police to a greater extent than previously believed. 8 Regional Development Revised Forecast located in Appendix D