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Home My WebLink About04/16/2012 Council Packetrvsinnesal. S &-C `j-(6- la- Navigating the New Normal Lino Lakes Panelists Biographies Bill Beard President Beard Group, Inc. Bill is the President of the Beard Group, Inc., a Hopkins based development firm specializing in City redevelopment projects. Bill's project experience ranges from mixed -use redevelopment to repurposing existing buildings that carry significant logistical challenges. In addition to building a thriving real estate development practice, Bill devotes extensive hours of volunteer service to numerous community organizations such as the Crisis Nursery, Minnesota Children's Museum, Peace Foundation and sits on the University of St. Thomas School of Real Estate Advisory Board. Rick Collins Vice President of Development Ryan Companies US, Inc. Rick Collins has spent more than 26 years in real estate focused on the development, leasing and management of office properties. Over the past 12 years, Rick has also developed a strong track record of success in mixed -use development and redevelopment, and award - winning historic preservation and adaptive re -use. Rick's tenure as a senior executive at several real estate firms has provided him the necessary experience to assemble the highly skilled development teams necessary to address complex development opportunities. In addition, Rick's commitment to industry leadership has manifested itself in cutting -edge office building development, as in the LEED -Gold Two MarketPointe office development completed in 2008 in Bloomington, MN. Navigating the New Normal Lino Lakes Panelists Biographies Dan Cornejo Principal Cornejo Consulting Dan Cornejo is a city planner and urban designer with over 35 years of experience in both the public and private sector. In 2004, he started his own firm, CORNEJO CONSULTING to focus on transit - oriented development and corridor planning. He led neighborhood and small area planning in Vancouver, Canada, and served as Planning Director in Staten Island, New York. Here in the Twin Cities, he was Planning and Economic Development Director in Saint Paul as well as Development Director for Robbinsdale. Most recently, he was part of the consultant team that led the Roseville Parks and Recreation Master Plan project. Rusty Fifield Senior Vice President and Director of Public Finance Northland Securities Rusty is a Senior Vice President and Director of Public Finance at Northland Securities. He has helped local governments, development companies and nonprofit organizations solve critical financial and community development issues for the past 33 years. Rusty has extensive project experience in the areas of infrastructure, public facilities, housing, redevelopment, planning, and group decision making. He has a broad background in helping cities plan for and undertake capital improvement and economic development programs. nergy & ommodit' Demographics Jobs /Income r—l- Preferenc "These things usually creep along at the speed of a glacier. Not so with aging. In demographic terms, this is a tsunami. It doesn't get much bigger than this " Thomas Gillaspy, MN State Demographer Projected Minnesota population ages 65+ ,.300.060 1.133,020 647,620 ,.300,480 3008 3010 3018 2020 2028 2020 2036 MInnaacta Sato Oomc0raphlo Carrter prolocilona Growth in # - Older Households 600,000 500,000 1 400,000 - 300,000 200,000 100,000 Under 35 95 % net ga +78,900 1 14 2004 35 to 54 55 to 74 754 1,089,300 - Occupied Housing Units (2009) in 7 -Co. Area +83,400 — Net Household Change (2004 -2009) Demographics • 2009 Decline of households Households with children with children. 1960.2025 • Households without children di• di 52% • •lb •72% • Population characteristics are changing uldel, more singles, more immigrants, fewer households with children Demographics Over 8Omillion Gen Ys today (1979 -96) C5mhhhion aby Boomers (1946 -64) • Gen Y represents the greatest magnitude and spending power Represents almost 30% of to-days population Overall, 1 is estimated that Gen Y influences much as haft of all spending in the U.S. economy' Over 35% of Gen Ys households earn above $75,000 They represent $1 6 trillion Demographics Where is the younger age cohort living? Households Usage Under Age 35 2010 7- county metro total Rental Apt 37.9% Owned SFD 34.3% Owned MF 11.1% A QIN Renral Sr; '. D.PI.4 Rental MF ohs Triplex 6.1% 5.5% 4.0% 1.0% Baby Boomers seeking active lifestyles, more interaction Boomers have made'third places" like Starbucks, Barnes and Noble, and Borders their 'community center' Preferences onnectivity w { .. MORE Gen V will shift toward homeownership in 2012 a1% - plan to rent for at least 3 years. 77 %- plan to live in urban walkable area say that living in a walk able community 0 important will pay more to walk to shops, work, and entertainment w .., . Gen Y seeks diversity, walk ability, and proximity to jobs In -town areas and inner suburbs will remain on an upward trajectory Change in Housing Choice In a national survey, 6 out of 10 prospective homebuyers chosea higher - density, mixed use community. Source:Smart6rowth America & National Associations,' Realtors • Nfilw Change in Housing Choice Falling Homeownership Rates Reflect a Sharp Turnaround in Owner and Renter Household Growth meownership Hate (Percent) 20 15 0 J5 U0 0 5 10 69 5 68.0 68 5 680 615 • 67 0 2006 -6 2000 -6 • .*oars • Shutters aaw Humaownorah4 Nate Wan= al US Car Ihrom Howe MOCV&raw 5 Housing Supply /Demand Mismatch Attached 25,914 25,715 199 Townhome 5,973 16,771 (10,798) Smaller Lot (<1 /6th ac) 14,717 41,368 (26,651) Larger Lot (>1 /6N' ac) 65,201 27,951 37,250 Total 111,805 111,805 Figures in thousands of occupied residential units. °Supply" based on American Housing Survey (2010). Source'. Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor and Director, Metropolitan Research Center, UnlaersityolU0h. Adapted from Arthur C. Nelson, ° leadership In a New Era-, Journal of the American Pbnnhg Association (2006). Updated, 2011 Built Environment is a Direct Reflection of the Underlying Economy Agriculture Economy • 15t version of the American Dream • "40 Acres and a Mule" Industrial Economy • 2 "d version of the American Dream • Drivable Sub - urban... "See the USA in Your Chevrolet" Knowledge /Experience Economy • Current /Future version of the American Dream • Option of Walkable Urban and Drivable Sub -urban 1M to a Changes in Household Income vs. Cost of Living 2000- 2008 —Gas Costs Rose 6 x Faster than Income a 3 x Faster than Housing more. Care tit Energy /Commodities U.S. Household Spending: Walkable, Average & Drivable Walkable Urban Average US Drivable Sub -urban Get rid of one car from the household fleet: >$100 K increase in mortgage carrying capacity $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $o The Problem: Capital Market Typical Commercial Loan Breakout $1,00,000 Project 20% 40% 2007 35% 19% 21% 2009 TODAY Return on Equity ■ Equity Loan Market View of MSP Region Emerging Trends 2011 Price Waterhouse Coopers & ULI, Nov. 2010 875 Top Investors & Developers Favor Infill over Fringe TOD & Green Building Mixed -Use 24 -hour markets Buy Land Less Retail Workforce Accessibility is Key Development will be where young workers want to be Infrastructure Investment in light rail & public amenities is positive MSP — diversified economy Potential Impacts to Cities Shifts in demand for local goods /services Shrinking local tax bases/ school impact Job markets impacts & transportation systems Demand for New Housing Type- f•B' Lino Lakes Community Change 5,000 2,500 Household Distribution Lino Lakes Households by Age (2005 -2010) Lino Lakes Households by Age 12005 2010) • Age 35 to 54 Age 55 to 74 Under Age 35 Age 75+ 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 All Household Change Percent Change 05 -10 -2% 69% Lino Lakes Resident Diversity Percent People of Color (2010 Census) Han Lae Lou nun 5, i—s4 w9.94 ® IIYs G 1993 - 2P+1* 2894 are oral- Pines _efHgttr 11"/ .ter M✓Ede�1't ^•c =c !doer ries 0 , Block Group % People of Color Where are Lino Lakes Residents Living? Households Usage (2010) All HH's E C* Slr W WWW W WWWWIez • •xrrvt�M� Lino Lakes Compared to Other Cities /County Percent Households Owner /Renter Occupied Blaine Shoreview Coon Rapids Anoka Co. Uno Lakes 23 77 23 MI 77 26 71 74 22 1111.' 78 7�1 91 0 20 40 60 so 100 • Renter • Owner Where did Lino Lakes Residents Move? (2004 -10) Cwt Lino Lakes 18% 839 residents moved (between 2004-2010) Blaine 8% Hugo & Forest Lake 6% each St. Paul, Shoreview, Ham Lake 4% each Circle Pines, Minneapolis 3% each 1,325 households moved to Lino Lakes (between 2004-2010) CSC Lino Lakes 13% Blaine Shoreview, St. Paul Roseville, White Bear Lake Circle Pines, Coon Rapids, New Brighton 9% 8% each 4% each 3% each Lino Lakes Single Family Home Tax Values 2010 INCOME LEVEL SUMMARY WHO LIVES ON n0° /o of the median income ❑ child care worker /school bus driver (1 child): Wage $45,350 - mortgage of 5100, 340. ❑ school counselor (single /3 kids): Wage $38,500 — mortgage $ 76.880. 00% of the median income ❑ power line installer (married /no kids). $83,900/yr - mortgage $219,000. tax preparer and retail store manager (2 kids): Wage $92,000 /yr- mortgage of 80% of the median income ❑ home appliance repair technician (single /no kids)'. $32.50/hr - mortgage of ❑ police officer and part time restaurant worker (1 rhadl wage $65,440/yr - mortgage of Median Home Sale Price Compared to Area Median Income (2010) $250,000 - 6211,250 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 5- Lino Lakes $76,880 $169,120 1 $219,000 60%AMI 80%AMI 100%AMI e Lino Lakes Residential Future Land Use esidential 33% of Total Use Land Area Low Density 82% Medium Density 14% Lino Lakes — Growth in Primary Jobs 3,500 - 3,400 3,300 3,200 3,100 3,000 2,900 2,800 2,700 2,600 2,500 3,374 3,009 3,367 3,060 2,985 2,918 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Same: US. come arewe. OtlhSImAmMemioa LMI/0 asioiu • (a,emmOta(Mmtt wM.r.arPmrtxmsasl 4 City of Lino Lakes 2010 - Top 5 Major Industry Sectors — % share Public Administration 18% Construction Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Accommodation /Food Service 9% 14% 11% % change (05 -10) -3% -45% 49% 10% -57% 71% • Lino Lakes — Labor Force /Resident Workers Inflow /Outflow Job Counts in 2009 MI 2.598 - Employed .n Selection Area, live Oots1de 8.820 - Live in Selection Area Employed 000 0e 381 - Employed and Lure in Selection Area 5oorcc U5 Census3wen) OpiMMep.Appocadop uM LEADOtiyw- Dcso0Npe Lmplonom, Swim, (Itnannmpol Intienninn Sid Quinn ol, 2 2 .._........... ............. Where Employees Come From & Residents Work thy % 2,918 jobs Lino Lakes 14% Blaine 7% Forest Lake 5% Hugo, Coon Rapids, Circle Pines, St. Paul 4% each Andover, Ham Lake, North Branch 2% each 9,734 residents working Minneapolis 14% St. Paul 11% Blaine 8% Roseville, Lino Lakes 4% each commuting Shoreview, Maplewood, White Bear, Fridley, Arden Hills 3% each Lino Lakes working residents Age Distribution: Under Age 30 21% 30 -54 65% Over 54 14% 100% Lino Lakes working resident wages Under 30 <$1,251 per mo 18% 54% $1,251 - $3,333 per mo 25% 34% > $3,333 per mo 57% 12% 100% Impact of the New Normal How will Lino Lakes Respond? Changing demographics and housing preferences will impact the supply and demand for new housing choices. • Future residents will likely desire waikability, access to services closer to home and less time driving. Difficulty in accessing private capital increases the complexity of (re)development. Industry Leader Panel Discussion