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Home My WebLink About05/07/2026 EDAC PacketECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY COMMITTEE AGENDA CITY OF JINO KES Thursday, May 7, 2026 Broadcast on Cable TV Channel 16 and northmetrotv.com/lino-lakes-stream ADVISORY COMMITTEE MEETING, 8:00 A.M. Community Room (not televised) 1. Call to Order and Roll Call 2. Approval of Minutes: April 2, 2026 3. Discussion Items A. Town Center Master Plan Update - Market Study Review B. Project Updates I_i 119TUIZINA114ni Page 1 of 11 DATE: TIME STARTED: TIME ENDED: MEMBERS PRESENT: MEMBERS ABSENT STAFF PRESENT: CITY OF LINO LAKES ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY COMMITTEE MINUTES April 2, 2026 8:00 a.m. 9:20 a.m. Blakely LaCroix, Patrick Kohler, Nathan Vojtech, Chad Wagner, Sam Bennett, Barbara White, Mark Pfeil, Suzy Guthmueller Andrew Cravero Michael Grochala, Marissa Ertel, Jessica Eller Mr. Vojtech called the Economic Development Advisory Committee meeting to order at 8:00 a.m. on April 2, 2026. 2. APPROVAL OF MINUTES Mr. LaCroix made a motion to approve the February 5, 2026 meeting minutes. Motion was supported by Mr. Kohler. Motion carried 8 — 0. 3. DISCUSSION ITEMS A. 5-Year Economic Development Strategic Plan Update Mr. Grochala presented the staff report. As part of the City's economic development efforts, the Economic Development Advisory Committee (EDAC) is responsible for the preparation of a five-year Economic Development Strategic Plan. The plan was last updated in 2021. As the current planning period nears completion, staff is proposing to begin work on an update. Mr. Bennett had questions about the BRE Program and whether the focus was primarily on industrial or whether commercial was included. Mr. Grochala confirmed that the focus would be industrial. Ms. Guthmueller suggested reaching out to Centennial High School with their manufacturing program regarding the Workforce Development Plan. DRAFT MINUTES Page 2 of 11 Economic Development Advisory Committee April 2, 2026 Page 2 Mr. Wagner mentioned the need for workers in the commercial spaces in the City and whether there would be opportunities to expand a program to help bring commercial workers to Lino Lakes. Mr. Vojtech believes that the Housing Maintenance Assistance Fund is important and should be included on the list of priorities. Mr. Wagner wanted to know if we have a committee that looks at the City and the future for redevelopment. Ms. Eller stated that with the addition of her position she would be the one to focus on properties for redevelopment. Mr. Bennett suggested an opportunity for apprenticeships and how the City could help facilitate. Mr. Bennett wondered if there was an opportunity for the City to get grants to help the industrial businesses bring in interns/apprentices. The Committee mentioned bringing in the local businesses together to discuss their needs. Mr. Kohler mentioned bringing in the Chamber of Commerce. B. Project Updates Ms. Eller provided project updates to the committee. 4. ADJOURNMENT Mr. Kohler made a motion to adjourn the meeting at 9:20 a.m. Motion was supported by Mr. Wagner. Motion was carried 8-0. Respectfully submitted, Marissa Ertel, Community Development Administrative Assistant DRAFT MINUTES Page 3 of 11 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY COMMITTEE AGENDA ITEM 3A STAFF ORIGINATOR: Michael Grochala, Community Development Director MEETING DATE: May 7, 2025 TOPIC: Town Center Master Plan Update — Market Study Review BACKGROUND As part of the Town Center Master Plan process, the City engaged Maxfield Research and Consulting to evaluate the market potential for development within the Town Center District. The study analyzes demographic and economic trends, site characteristics, and market conditions for residential and commercial uses. The Town Center market study finds the area is well -positioned to support a mix of market -rate housing, retail and service commercial uses, small-scale office space, hospitality, and destination -oriented entertainment. The study highlights the importance of leveraging visibility along Lake Drive and Interstate 35W and concentrating higher intensity uses along these corridors. Market conditions indicate strong population and household growth, increasing renter demand, and strong household incomes, all of which support additional residential development. The study identifies potential demand for new housing units and commercial space, particularly when development is strategically concentrated along these corridors. Integrating housing into the Town Center is expected to support commercial uses and contribute to a more active, mixed -use environment. Mary Bujold of Maxfield Research and Consulting will be present at the meeting to provide a high-level overview of the study findings and answer questions from the Committee. EDAC CONSIDERATION Review and discussion of the market study findings and their implications for the Town Center Master Plan and future development. ATTACHMENTS 1. Town Center Market Study Executive Summary Page 4 of 11 An Analysis of Targeted Development for the Town Center District in Lino Lakes, Minnesota Prepared for: City of Lino Lakes Lino Lakes, MN March 2026 Maxfield Research & Consulting 901 Twelve Oaks Center Drive Suite 922 Wayzata, MN 55391 612.338.0012 www.maxfieldresearch.com Page 5 of 11 Maxfield V- Research & Consulting Breaking Ground since 1983 March 2, 2026 Mr. Michael Grochala, AICP Community Development Director City of Lino Lakes 600 Town Center Parkway Lino Lakes, MN 55014 Mr. Grochala: Attached is the "An Analysis of Targeted Development for the Lino Lakes Town Center District" prepared by Maxfield Research and Consulting. The analysis evaluates the market potential for commercial (retail, office, hospitality, destination entertainment) and high -density residential development that could be supported on the subject sites, based on demographic and economic trends, competitive supply conditions and the development characteristics of the Town Center area. The subject parcels benefit from strong visibility along Lake Drive and 1-35W, as well as proximity to existing residential neighborhoods, employment concentrations, and regional transportation routes. These location advantages position the area to capture a variety of commercial uses. Maxfield Research finds that the Town Center District exhibits market support for market -rate rental housing, retail and service commercial space, office space targeted to small users, hospitality and destination entertainment. Concentrating future development along Lake Drive and other highly visible corridors will maximize market capture and enhance the District's long-term viability. Additional real estate concepts that may be supportable are summarized in the Conclusions and Recommendations section of the report. We have appreciated the opportunity to conduct this study and are available to address any questions or provide further assistance. Sincerely, MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING Mary Bujold President Attachment Rob Wilder Senior Associate (main) 612-338-0012 901 Twelve Oaks Center Drive, Suite 922, Wayzata, MN 55391 www.maxfieldresearch.com Page 6 of 11 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Executive Summary Site Evaluation The subject sites —located along Village Drive, Town Center Parkway and near the intersection of Lake Drive and 1-35W—benefit from high visibility, strong access, and proximity to regional transportation corridors. Lake Drive carries a combined 26,327 average daily trips north and south of 1-35W, while 1-35W contributes 40,446 additional daily trips per day combined two- way traffic. Surrounding land uses include multifamily housing to the north, wetlands to the south and east, and vacant parcels and Lake Drive to the west. The parcels vary significantly in ownership and size, including large County -owned tracts and smaller privately -owned parcels. The parcel adjacent to The Rookery is more suitable for residential development due to lower visibility and smaller size, while sites along Lake Drive and 1-35W are best positioned for commercial uses —particularly retail, office, hospitality, and entertainment concepts that rely on visibility and access. Demographic Review The Primary Market Area (PMA) includes multiple north -metro communities. As of 2020, the PMA contained 193,435 residents and 71,608 households, with strong population and household growth from 2010 to 2020 (13% and 28%, respectively) and continued projected growth through 2035. Key demographic insights include: Significant growth among younger (20-34) and older (75+) age groups is projected through 2030, supporting demand for both rental housing and senior -friendly alternatives. Median household incomes in the PMA are high at $107,950 in 2025, growing to a projected $119,294 by 2030, supporting market -rate rents and home prices. Renter households have grown sign ificantly-48% since 2010—reflecting broad demographic and lifestyle shifts toward rental demand. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING Page 7 of 11 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Employment Trends There are an estimated 151,000 jobs within 10 miles of the Town Center District, anchored by major employers in Blaine, Shoreview, Arden Hills, and other nearby cities. Employment in Lino Lakes has grown modestly to 4,210 jobs and is forecast to grow 23.5% by 2030, reaching 5,200 jobs. Key industries include manufacturing, retail trade, and health care. Average weekly wages in Lino Lakes increased 39% since 2016 to $1,345 in 2025, supporting higher housing affordability levels. Rental Market Analysis Rental market conditions are tight across the PMA, with vacancy rates below the 5% equilibrium across most unit types and average rents of $1,503 (Q4 2025). The competitive newer properties show an average occupancy rate of 96.9% with weighted average rents of $1,825 ($2.23/sf) and strong lease -up performance in new developments. The market demonstrates significant pent-up rental demand, with forecasted demand for 1,977 new market -rate units between 2025 and 2030. The subject parcels can capture 198-297 of these units (10-15%) based on location, market conditions and competitive context. For -Sale Housing Market Analysis Home resale prices in Lino Lakes increased strongly from 2020-2025 (median price rising from $380,000 to $511,000) with similar growth across the PMA. Multifamily for -sale prices also rose significantly. Demand calculations show potential for 3,552 new for -sale units in the PMA between 2025 and 2030, with Lino Lakes positioned to capture 10% (=355 units), mostly single-family homes (70%) and townhome/condo units (30%). Retail Market Analysis Retail spending in the PMA is strong, totaling $3.3 billion in 2025 and growing steadily, particularly in food (grocery + dining), entertainment and recreation categories. However, retail vacancy in the PMA remains elevated at 14.7% (2025), well above the regional rate (11.1%) due to e-commerce growth and slow post -pandemic recovery. The study estimates PMA demand capturable in Lino Lakes of 150,000 sq ft to 2040 based on location visibility and accessibility. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 2 Page 8 of 11 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Office Market Analysis The regional office market continues to struggle with high vacancies (23.9% metro -wide), though Lino Lakes' submarket is stabilizing due to limited new construction and modest absorption. Office -using industries in the PMA add roughly 150,000 sq ft of incremental demand per year based on business growth trends and average space requirements (z175 sq ft/employee). Lino Lakes is projected to capture 12,252 sq ft of new office demand by 2040—best suited for small, flexible suites targeting health care, professional services, and small business users — requiring about 0.9 acres of land at typical FARs. Entertainment Use Analysis Households in the PMA spend approximately $3,480 annually on entertainment, totaling $275 million in 2025 and projected to grow significantly with household growth. The area lacks a cohesive entertainment district, but site configurations —particularly the five -acre freeway -visible parcel —are well -suited for entertainment anchors such as indoor recreation, pickleball/bowling concepts, boutique performance venues or event centers. Complementary smaller parcels can support experiential retail and food -and -beverage operators, enabling a coordinated entertainment cluster. There are a number of facilities in the Twin Cities targeted primarily to adults and others targeted to families. Facilities in the destination entertainment group targeted to adults include Pinstripes, Dave and Busters, Can -Can Wonderland, Moto-i, Boardwalk Kitchen. Those targeted to families include Puttshack, WOW Zone, SmashPark, Slick City Action Park, NoWhere Entertainment, The Fair on 4, The Burrow and others. Hospitality Market Analysis The Mounds View —Lino Lakes hotel submarket has recovered well, with 65% occupancy in 2026—exceeding the metro average —and strong year -over -year increases in RevPAR and occupancy rates. There are 23 hotels (1,713 rooms) within 10 miles, but no new hotels have been built since 2019 and none are in the pipeline, indicating an aging and supply -constrained inventory. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 3 Page 9 of 11 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Overall Conclusions & Recommendations The Town Center District can support a balanced mix of residential and commercial uses that leverage visibility along Lake Drive and 1-35W. Concentrating higher -visibility commercial uses along Lake Drive will strengthen long-term viability and help establish a cohesive district identity. Maxfield Research has evaluated the parcels in the focus area and has provided recommendations for each based on their individual sizes and locations in the Town Center District. RECOMMENDED USES TOWN CENTER DISTRICT SITES LINO LAKES Site Key Size Acres Recommended use Reasoning Use Description 180-200 Apartments with Multifamily plus Interior/close Experience Based retail and A 6.23 entertainment use to Rookery boutique restaurants (Ex: West End in St. Louis Park) Interior/ high B 1.48 Enterta i n ment or visi bil ity from Drive through Restaurant/Fast Restaurant Casual 1-35W Interior/ high FamilyEntertainment(Trampoline C 2.89 Entertainment use visibility from Park, Boutique Mini Golf, etc.) 1-35W Lake Drive Small Format Retail (Ex: Gift shop, D 0.78 Commercial Retail Adjacent/High boutique clothing, shoe store, ice Visibility cream shop, sandwich shop) Entertainment Interior/low Entertainmentor Potential Office E 1.02 use/office potential visibility space Lake Drive Small Format Retail (Ex: Gift shop, F 0.66 Commercial Retail Adjacent/High boutique clothing, shoe store, ice Visibility cream shop, sandwich shop) Entertainment Interior/low Entertainment (Restaurant or G 1.06 use/office potential visibility PotentialOfficespace) Lake Drive Small Format Retail (Ex: Gift shop, H 0.91 Commercial Retail Adjacent/High boutique clothing, shoe store, ice Visibility cream shop, sandwich shop) Entertainment Interior/ high use/Hospitality Hospitality, boutique restaurant, 1 5.82 use/boutique visi bil ity from destination entertainment I-35W restaurant Destination -based Entertainment/Recreation Adjacentto The J,K 2.07 entertainment retail Rookery Restaurant Venue or High -Density use or multifamily Multifamily Sources: Maxfield Research and Consulting. 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