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New Lake Elmo Elementary School & Oak-Land Middle School August 1, 2024 Transportation Study Page 18 Traffic Forecasts To evaluate traffic impacts associated with the two school projects, traffic forecasts were developed for the year 2026 build conditions. The following information summarizes the year 2026 traffic forecast development process. School Time Changes Based on discussions with the school district, school times are expected to change prior to Year 2026 conditions and are summarized in Table 5. To account for the shift in travel patterns to/from Oak-Land Middle School, site trips were estimated throughout the network and modified to align with the new hours of operations. Given the staggered start/end times, four (4) separate peak hours were analyzed as part of this study to align with the new school times. It should be noted that these peak hours, which are also summarized in Table 5, slightly overlap with each other, however, in general the two (2) schools are staggered enough to minimize compounding impacts. Note the p.m. peak hour is based on the adjacent roadway network and is expected to remain from 4:00 to 5:00 p.m. Table 5. School Time Changes School School Times School Peak Hours Analyzed Current Future (2026) Oak-Land Middle School 7:50 – 2:20 pm 8:35 – 3:05 pm 7:45 -8:45 am 2:30-3:30 pm Lake Elmo Elementary 8:45 – 3:15 pm 7:45 – 2:15 pm 7:00 -8:00 am 1:45-2:45 pm Background Traffic Growth To account for general background growth in the area, a growth rate of one and three quarters (1.75) percent was applied to the existing peak hour traffic volumes to develop year 2026 background traffic forecasts. This growth rate was developed using a combination of historical average daily traffic (ADT) volumes from surrounding roadways publish by MnDOT, traffic forecasts from both the City of Lake Elmo and Washington County Comprehensive Plans, and engineering judgment. It should be noted that there are several development opportunities and potential roadway connections south of the school sites, however, based on discussions with the project team the general background growth rate is expected to account for this development potential from a traffic perspective. Trip Generation – Oak-Land Middle School To account for the traffic operations associated with the enrollment changes expected at Oak-Land Middle School, trip generation estimates were developed. The trip generation estimates, shown in Table 6, were developed using the existing trip rates based on the data collected at the site access locations (highlighted in gray).