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<br /> <br />Comment Response <br />Forecasts (Todd Graham, 651-602-1322). The AUAR discusses four development <br />scenarios: <br />• Scenario 1 includes 1.8 million square feet of nonresidential space (mostly <br />business park) and 400 apartments in mixed use development. <br />• Scenario 2 includes 1.7 million square feet of nonresidential space (mostly <br />business park), 210 apartments in mixed use development, and 180 units in low- <br />and medium density residential. <br />• Scenario 3 includes 2.3 million square feet of nonresidential space (mostly <br />business park) and 56 houses in low-density residential. <br />• Scenario 4, consistent with the current Comprehensive Plan, includes 1.1 million <br />square feet of nonresidential space (business park) on the southern half, and 10 <br />houses, rural residential, on the northern half. <br />The AUAR study site is part of the Transportation Analysis Zone #2351 (north of 34 th <br />Avenue) and TAZ #2389 (south of 34th Avenue). TAZ allocations for 2040 have been <br />prepared by the City and were updated following a 2021 plan amendment for the <br />southern portion of the subject site. The TAZ allocation describes: <br />• TAZ #2351 will grow by +4 households and will have zero employment during <br />2020-2040. <br />• TAZ #2389 will lose -96 households and -310 population; and will grow by +800 <br />jobs during 2020-2040. <br />Should the City pursue scenarios 1, 2, or 3, Lake Elmo would need to request MUSA <br />extension and amend its comprehensive plan. The Metropolitan Council would also <br />expect a households, population, and employment forecast increase; and revised <br />forecast allocations for Transportation Analysis Zones #2351 and #2389. (None of this is <br />needed for Scenario 4). <br />Comment noted. If the City pursues Scenarios 1, <br />2, or 3, a MUSA extension and adjustments to <br />forecasts will be requested, and the City will <br />amend its comprehensive plan.