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Future development assumptions will be based on vacant land area and expected land use, <br />providing a foundation for projecting: <br />o Water and Sewer Revenues <br />o Park Dedication Funds <br />o Permit Revenues <br />o Tax Capacity Growth, etc. <br />These projections should be refined after the 2050 Comprehensive Plan process is complete, and <br />future iterations of the Strategic Financial Plan should incorporate those findings and land use <br />assumptions. <br />5. Debt and Financial Sustainability Assumptions <br />The City’s current outstanding debt is approximately $60 million and discussions have been held with <br />Council to decrease this debt moving forward. This reduction will be pursued in coordination with a <br />timely rollout of capital levies, ensuring continued investment in essential infrastructure while managing <br />overall debt responsibly. <br />Financial sustainability, for the purposes of this plan, is defined as maintaining fiscal stability and service <br />delivery capacity over the long term. The City’s financial outlook will extend through 2050, consistent <br />with the planning horizon of the Comprehensive Plan. However, it is important to recognize that these <br />forecasts represent trends—not certainties. Future outcomes will depend on policy choices, economic <br />conditions, development patterns, and external factors beyond the City’s control. The projections are <br />intended to inform, not predict, and will evolve with new data and policy direction. <br />The Strategic Financial Plan is not a fixed roadmap for the next 25 years. Rather, it is a decision-support <br />tool designed to: <br />Inform current and short-term financial decisions by illustrating their long-term implications. <br />Align long-term goals and strategies with the City’s fiscal capacity and sustainability targets. <br />Encourage proactive management of revenues, expenditures, and debt to achieve stable and <br />predictable financial outcomes over time. <br />6. Scenario Planning Framework <br />Scenario planning for a city organization is inherently complex. Unlike a single business or project, <br />municipal financial outcomes are influenced by dozens of interdependent variables, including economic <br />conditions, development trends, state and federal policies, construction costs, staffing levels, and service <br />expectations. The result is effectively an infinite number of potential scenarios. <br />Recognizing this complexity, the City’s Strategic Financial Plan will not attempt to model every possible <br />outcome. Instead, it will focus on a limited number of key scenarios to help City Council and staff <br />visualize the direction and magnitude of potential trends under varying assumptions. <br />The plan will be built on the basic assumptions outlined in the previous section, serving as the baseline <br />scenario. <br />From there, a small number of alternative scenarios will be developed to illustrate how changes in <br />selected variables could impact the City’s long-term financial position. Examples might include: <br />•Street CIP – Adjust variables within the funding policy or long-term average street project <br />expenses. <br />•Operations Budgets – Incorporate department head projections for staffing or service changes. <br />•Development – Model baseline growth and alternate market stagnation scenario. <br />•Large Capital Projects – Include the Ballfield Complex or other Council-identified projects to <br />assess debt and levy implications. <br />The intent of scenario planning is not to predict the future, but to provide a decision-making context. Each <br />scenario will help illustrate the range of possible outcomes, the fiscal sensitivity of key policy areas, and <br />the trade-offs between short-term financial choices and long-term fiscal stability. <br />Planning Tools and Data Systems