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<br /> <br />Supporting Data - Staff generated population projection <br />The table below represents a population projection generated by staff based on approved and known <br />development projects, the adopted 2040 Comprehensive Plan’s future land use guidance, and MUSA staging <br />plan. The table uses a conservative estimate of average household size, 2.5 residents per household. <br />Year 2026 2030 2035 2040 <br />Cumulative Building Starts* 962 2359 2555 3059 <br />Population 15127 18952 20689 22027 <br />2025 System Statement <br />Population <br />n/a 15200 n/a 16900 <br />Adjusted Forecasts n/a 19,200 n/a 21,400 <br />* This means the number of building permits issued from 2024 to 2026, 2030, 2035, and 2040. <br />Supporting Data – 10 Year Permitting History <br />The table below represents permitting history for detached and attached residential units. On average, the City <br />has issued permits for 171 detached single family homes alone per year over the last decade. Assuming a <br />conservative average household size of 2.5 residents per unit, this would mean a yearly population gain of 428 <br />residents on average every year. <br /> 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 <br />Detached 41 120 200 265 244 244 265 236 105 91 84 157 <br />Attached 0 20 51 34 28 6 44 61 95 75 0 47 <br />Total 41 140 251 299 272 250 309 297 200 166 84 204 <br /> <br />Next Steps <br />Staff find that the adjusted numbers are reasonable given that there is an expected net increase in households <br />but a reduction in population through 2040 given the regionwide trend of reduced household size. The above <br />amended forecast is both generally consistent with the adopted 2040 plan and would be accepted by the Met <br />Council as it does not represent additional growth which would not be supported by the Met Council’s WBL <br />Memo policy. Staff are therefore supportive of, and recommend the amendment to the 2040 plan. This would <br />provide a reasonable starting point for Comprehensive Planning effort that is now underway and allow further <br />discussions with the Met Council in 2027 or beyond following conclusion of the WBL Area Work Group study. <br />