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SCVACFC Site Selection Task Force August 18, 2006 Page 10 Lake Elmo has been the only community thus far that is required to increase its densities. There are, however, several surrounding communities such as Grant and Afton which have municipality status and also have chosen to remain at very low densities. Should Grant or Afton reach a similar situation in the future with the Metropolitan Council, growth patterns could change dramatically in the St. Croix Valley Area and could shift current population concentrations more to the south or north. At this time, current estimates identify high concentrations of population and households in the following areas: Stillwater Oak Park Heights Lake Elmo Considering future growth to 2030, concentrations will increase substantially in Lake Elmo and will surpass Stillwater. The combined populations of Oak Park Heights, Stillwater and Bayport however, will remain greater than Lake Elmo (31,600 people versus 24,000 in Lake Elmo). The lower density communities surrounding the major cities are projected to remain as such, certainly through 2010, but also forecast through 2030. The site criteria analysis which follows utilizes the projected population and household figures as well as projected growth within five miles of each site in assessing the geographic proximity of the various proposed locations to future growth. As indicated in the enrollment projections report for the Stillwater School District, Lake Elmo is expected to begin its development of the Old Village area in shortly and is forecast to add upwards of 520 new housing units to the area within the next four to five years. From 2010 to 2030, Lake Elmo is projected to surpass Stillwater in population growth (24,000 versus 19,900). In reaching its required total of 24,000 people, Lake Elmo will surpass Stillwater's population base by 4,100 people by 2030. The combined 2030 populations of Stillwater, Oak Park Heights and Bayport are projected to equal 31,600 people. From the maps, it is clear that the locus of population density will balance out over the next 20 years, from its current concentration in Stillwater/Oak Park Heights/Bayport to a more balanced situation between Stillwater/Oak Park Heights/Bayport and Lake Elmo. Stillwater, Oak Park Heights and Bayport will continue to have the highest combined concentration of population and households and the commercial district along Trunk Highway 36 will remain one of the dominant commercial shopping concentrations for the region. Lake Elmo will develop a larger commercial base, but initially, it is intending to target smaller neighborhood -oriented goods and services. MAMELD RESEARCH INC.