HomeMy WebLinkAboutItem 14 - AttachmentsExhibit A
Legal Descriptions of Effected Parcels
PID: 16.029.21.24.0002
PT NW1/4 & PT SW1/4 DESC AS FOLL BEG AT NE COR OF SD SE1/4-NW1/4 THN W ALG N LN OF S1/2-NW1/4
124.49 RODS THN SLY PARL WITH W LN OF SD SEC 594FT TO A PT THN WLY PARL WITH N LN OF SD SW1/4-
NW1/4 TO W LN SD S EC THN SLY ALG W LN SD SEC DIS T 723.63FT TO SW COR SD SW1/4- NW1/4 THN
S00DEG03'55"E ALG W LN SD NW1/4-SW1/4 DIST 115.2FT THN N89DEG51'8"E DIST 815FT TH N S0DEG3'55"E
PARL WITH SD W LN DIST 400FT TO ITS INTER WITH N LN STATE HWY#5 THN S89DEG51'08"W ALG SD N LN
DIST 815FT TO ITS INTER WITH W LN OF NW1/4-SW1/4 THN SLY ALG W LN TO SW COR OF SD SEC THN ELY
ON S LN OF SD SEC TO SE COR OF W1/2 SD SW1/4 THN NLY ALG E LN SD W1/2-SW1/4 TO N LN RR R/W THN
ELY ALG N LN SD RR R/W TO E LN SD SW1/4 THN NLY ALG E LN SD SW1/4 & ALG E LN SD NW1/4 TO POB EXC
RR R/W ACR SD SW1/4 SUBJ TO EASE & SUBJ TO ACCESS CONTROL Section 16 Township 029 Range 021
PID: 15.029.21.31.0001
PT OF SW1/4 OF SD SEC 15 LYING NLY OF NLY R/W OF RR DESC AS FOLL: COM AT NELY COR SD SW1/4 THN
S00DEG51'44"E BRG ORIENTED TO WACO SYS ALG ELY LN SD SW1/4 DIST 1067.20FT THN S89DEG13'16"W
DIST 289.50FT THN S48DEG14'16"W ALG A LN HEREINAFTER REFERRED AS LN "A" DIST 36.58FT TO PT
HEREINAFTER REFERRED AS PT "C" THN S05DEG16'16"W ALG A LN HEREINAFTER REFERRED AS LN "B" DIST
194.90FT M/L TO PT OF INTER WITH NLY R/W LN OF HWY 5 AKA STILLWATER BLVD N SD PT OF INTER BEING
THE POB THN N05DEG16'16"E ALG SD LN "B" DIST 194.90FT M/L TO BEFORE DESC PT "C" THN
N48DEG14'16"E ALG SD LN "A" DIST 35.69FT M/L TO INTER WITH SLY LN OF N 1067.20FT OF SD SW1/4 THN
S89DEG06'21"W ALG SD SLY LN DIST 24.33FT M/L TO WLY LN OF E 314.50FT OF SD SW1/4 THN
N00DEG51'44"W ALG SD WLY LN DIST 1067.20FT M/L TO NLY LN OF SD SW1/4 THN S89DEG06'21"W ALG SD
NLY LN DIST 995.27FT M/L TO ELY LN OF W 1312.FT OF SD SW1/4 THN S00DEG41'24"E ALG SD ELY LN DIST
460.FT M/L TO SLY LN OF N 460.FT OF SD SW1/4 THN S89DEG06'21"W ALG SD SLY LN DIST 404.01FT M/L TO
DESC ELY LN OF FRIEDRICH HGTS PLAT THN S00DEG41'24"E ALG SD ELY LN DIST 141.48FT THN
S80DEG54'36"W ALG SLY LN SD PLAT DIST 59.61FT THN S00DEG41'24"E ALG SD ELY LN SD PLAT DIST 66.FT
THN N80DEG54"36"E ALG SD NLY LN SD PLAT DIST 164.77FT THN S00DEG41'24"E ALG SD ELY LN SD PLAT
DIST 5.07FT M/L TO INTER WITH LN DRAWN PARL WITH SD NLY LN OF SW1/4 & EXT WLY FROM IPM ON WLY
LN OF E1/2 SD SW1/4 SD WLY LN HAVING BRG OF S00DEG46'34"E SD IPM DIST 657.56FT SLY FROM NWLY
COR OF SD E1/2-SW1/4 THN N89DEG06'21"E ALG SD PARL LN DIST 299.85FT M/L TO SD IPM THN
N89DEG24'43"E ALG NLY LN TRACT DESC IN DOC #714370 & ALG NLY LN OF PARCEL DESC IN DOC #3408380
DIST 309.19FT M/L TO IPM AT THE NELY COR THEREOF THN S01DEG00'08"E ALG ELY LN SD PARCEL DESC IN
DOC #3408380 DIST 386.67FT M/L TO INTER WITH A LN HERINAFTER REFERRED AS LN "C" DRAWN AT RT ANG
& ELY FROM A PT IN SD WLY LN OF E1/2-SW1/4 SD PT BEING HERINAFTER REFERRED AS PT "A" SD PT ALSO
DIST 118.20FT NLY AS MEAS ALG SD WLY LN OF E1
PID: 25.029.21.44.0001
GOV LOT 4 EXC THAT PT DESC AS FOLL:BEG @ SW CORN OF SD SE1/4-SE1/4 OF SD SEC25 & RUN THN N ON W
LN OF SD1/4-1/4 225FT M/L TO THE C/L OF THE PUBLIC HWY AS NOW LOCATED RUN THN SELY ALG THE C/L
OF SD PUBLIC HWY A DIST 828FT TO A PT WHICH IS 45FT N OF S LN OF SD1/4-1/4 THN S ON LN PAR WITH
THE W LN OF SD SE1/4-SE1/4 45FT TO A PT IN THE S LN OF SD1/4-1/4 RUN THN W ON S LN THEREOF TO THE
POB Section 25 Township 029 Range 021
Sources: Washington County & Metro GIS12-30-2013
5
Planned Land Use
Lake Elmo Comprehensive Plan 2030
Map 3-3
Municipal Boundary
Proposed Amendment:RAD-ALT to RAD
Proposed Future Land Use Map Amendments:All Existing RAD-ALT Parcels
Lake Elmo Comprehensive Plan Chapter III – Land Use Plan
This section of the Land Use chapter establishes the City’s official land use categories and the official
Future Land Use Map. The map assigns planned land use types to all parcels within the community to
guide current and future planning and development through the year 2030, and is the official land use
designation map for the City. The assigned land use designations are intended to shape the character,
type and density of future development according to sound planning principles. Any new development,
redevelopment, change in land use or change in zoning is required to be consistent with the official land
use guidance for each parcel.
The official land use plan categories are as follows:
RURAL AREA DEVELOPMENT – This category represents the large areas of rural residential development
within the City. Common uses found in these areas include working farms, alternative agricultural uses
as defined by City Code, and rural single family detached residences. Development in these areas
requires 10+ acres, or a conditional use permit to authorize a cluster development meeting the City’s
Open Space Preservation regulations. Densities are allowed up to 0.45 dwelling units per buildable acre
when planned as part of an Open Space Preservation development. No new areas of rural area
development are being established by the official land use plan. [Corresponding Zoning District(s): A,
RR, OP]
RURAL AREA DEVELOPMENT – ALTERNATE DENSITY – This land use category represents a subset of
land guided for Rural Area Development and provides for an increase in the densities allowed through
an Open Space Preservation development of up to 2.0 dwelling units per buildable acre. Further
increases in the base density may be allowed through a Planned Unit Development through incentives
for density bonuses that are permitted as part of a PUD and that maintain the open space character of a
development. In addition to single-family residences and townhouses, multi-family housing for seniors
is permitted in this district. [Corresponding Zoning District(s): A, RR, OP-2]
RESIDENTIAL ESTATE – This category defines areas developed specifically for large lot single family
detached housing typically on 2+ acres of land. No new areas of residential estate are being established
by the official land use plan. [Corresponding Zoning District(s): RE]
RURAL SINGLE FAMILY – This category defines a large portion of the City that was historically platted for
conventional subdivision prior to 2005, but has been and will continue to be serviced by private on-site
well and septic systems. Limited locations within this classification are allowed to have two-family
dwellings based on zoning. [Corresponding Zoning District(s): R-1, R-2]
URBAN LOW DENSITY – The Urban Low Density land use category is intended primarily for single-family
detached housing serviced by public sewer and water. This category allows net residential densities
from two and one-half (2.5) to four (4) units per acre. Significant new areas of urban low density are
guided both within the Old Village and along I-94. [Corresponding Zoning District: LDR]
URBAN MEDIUM DENSITY – The Urban Medium Density land use category allows net residential
densities from four and one-half (4.5) to seven (7) units per acre; with greater densities only allowed if
deemed appropriate and approved through the PUD process and that meet incentives for density bonus
III – 8
Lake Elmo Comprehensive Plan Chapter III – Land Use Plan
Table 3-B Existing and Planned Land Use Table
Land Use
Residential
Density (units/acre) Existing Land Use (acres)
Planned
Land Use
(acres)
Planned Land Use Changes
(anticipated acreages in 5 year increments)3
Change
(acres) Min Max City wide (Village)1 2012 to 2015 2015 to 2020 2020 to 2025 2025 to 2030
RESIDENTIAL
Rural Area Development n/a 0.1 7094.24 5157.6253
13.24
6610.086648.99 6125.926203.74 5641.765758.49 5157.625313.24 -1936.62-
1781
Rural Area Dev. ALT n/a 2.0 0.00 155.62 38.91 77.81 116.72 155.62 155.62
Residential
Estates 0.1 0.4 771.26 793.71 776.87 782.49 788.10 793.71 22.45
Rural Single Family 0.66 2.0 1665.92 1666.41 1666.04 1666.16 1666.28 1666.41 0.49
Urban Low Density 2.5 4 0.00 496.39 124.10 248.20 372.29 496.39 496.39
Urban Medium Density 4.5 7 176.08 390.49 229.68 283.29 336.89 390.49 214.41
Urban High
Density 7.5 15 0.00 157.67 39.42 78.84 118.25 157.67 157.67
Village Urban Low Density 1.5 2.5 0.00 216.20 54.05 108.10 162.15 216.20 216.20
Village Urban Medium
Density
3.0 4.0 0.00 113.70 28.43 56.85 85.28 113.70 113.70
COMMERCIAL2
Business Park 7.5 15 120.65 329.69 172.91 225.17 277.43 329.69 209.04
Commercial 4.5 7 99.86 208.33 126.98 154.10 181.22 208.33 108.47
Limited Business – – 111.41 66.16 100.09 88.78 77.47 66.16 -45.25
Village Mixed Use 6.0 10.0 0.00 164.40 41.10 82.20 123.30 164.40 164.40
PUBLIC/SEMI PUBLIC/OPEN SPACE3
Public/Park – – 3298.94 3352.24 3312.27 3325.59 3338.92 3352.24 53.3
Greenbelt Corridor4 – – 0.00 82.67 20.66 41.34 62.01 82.67 82.67
Road ROWs – – 890.93 890.93 890.93 890.93 890.93 890.93 0.0
UNDEVELOPED
Open Water – – 1355.29 1355.29 1355.29 1355.29 1355.29 1355.29 0.0
TOTALS: – – 15,584.58 15,584.58 15,584.55 15,584.55 15,584.55 15,584.55 0.0
1 Residential uses within the “Business Park” and “Commercial” land use designations can only occur in areas specifically designated for mixed use on the planned land use map
2 It is recognized that both park and road ROW areas will expand as new development occurs, but such acreage is accounted for in the respective development land use types as such land areas must contribute towards required development densities.
3 The staging plan for future development is fluid and will allow development to occur as market conditions dictate. Because of this,
specific timing for development of any specific land use category is not possible. For the purposes of this table, the anticipated acreage changes are incrementally broken down into four periods of time showing a consistent rate of change between now and 2030.
4 The acreage of the greenbelt corridor areas, which are portions of the Village Open Space Overlay, that are adjacent to urban zoning
districts were calculated to account for the remaining acreage in the Village. The other portions of the Village Open Space Overlay are accounted for through the base land use guidance (i.e. Rural Area Development or Rural Single Family).
III – 11
Thrive MSP 2040 ForecastsAdopted May 28, 2014
◊ = Rogers annexed Hassan Township in 2012; forecasts have been combined.
† = Laketown Township will be fully annexed before 2030; forecast has been reassigned to neighboring cities.
(pt) denotes part of a city; remainder of city is in neighboring county.
2000 2010 2040 2000 2010 2040 2000 2010 2040
ANOKA COUNTY
Andover 26,588 30,598 40,700 8,107 9,811 15,400 3,583 4,669 6,200 Anoka 18,076 17,142 20,100 7,262 7,060 8,900 13,489 12,840 14,600
Bethel 443 466 580 149 174 250 229 86 530 Blaine (pt)45,014 57,186 86,000 15,926 21,077 33,000 16,757 19,668 26,600
Centerville 3,202 3,792 4,200 1,077 1,315 1,700 363 409 500 Circle Pines 4,663 4,918 5,300 1,697 2,006 2,300 2,150 790 1,450
Columbia Heights 18,520 19,496 21,700 8,033 7,926 9,300 6,397 3,484 5,300 Columbus 3,957 3,914 5,300 1,328 1,416 2,200 507 1,172 1,850
Coon Rapids 61,607 61,476 72,500 22,578 23,532 29,300 21,682 23,260 35,700 East Bethel 10,941 11,626 18,200 3,607 4,060 7,400 1,374 1,123 2,200
Fridley 27,449 27,208 29,400 11,328 11,110 12,800 26,257 21,333 29,800 Ham Lake 12,710 15,296 17,300 4,139 5,171 7,100 3,194 2,931 4,480
Hilltop 766 744 1,100 400 380 550 257 314 360 Lexington 2,142 2,049 2,300 819 787 1,000 634 467 700
Lino Lakes 16,791 20,216 29,000 4,857 6,174 10,600 2,671 3,313 6,000 Linwood Township 4,668 5,123 4,700 1,578 1,884 2,000 154 219 430
Nowthen 3,557 4,443 5,400 1,123 1,450 2,100 337 318 720 Oak Grove 6,903 8,031 10,200 2,200 2,744 4,100 359 741 1,010
Ramsey 18,510 23,668 32,800 5,906 8,033 13,000 4,008 4,779 7,600
St. Francis 4,910 7,218 12,500 1,638 2,520 5,100 1,247 1,537 3,000
Spring Lake Park (pt)6,667 6,234 6,800 2,676 2,597 3,100 4,401 2,934 3,670
Anoka County Total 298,084 330,844 426,080 106,428 121,227 171,200 110,050 106,387 152,700
CARVER COUNTY
Benton Township 939 786 740 307 297 300 282 274 350
Camden Township 955 922 830 316 329 330 15 56 60
Carver 1,266 3,724 15,000 458 1,182 5,600 176 187 1,700 Chanhassen (pt)20,321 22,952 36,200 6,914 8,352 14,000 8,366 9,746 16,240
Chaska 17,603 23,770 34,900 6,169 8,816 14,200 10,955 11,123 16,800 Cologne 1,012 1,519 4,600 385 539 1,900 294 270 470
Dahlgren Township 1,453 1,331 720 479 494 300 203 202 200 Hamburg 538 513 600 206 201 250 117 109 150
Hancock Township 367 345 410 121 127 170 35 10 10 Hollywood Township 1,102 1,041 1,200 371 387 500 100 90 150
Laketown Township †2,331 2,243 - 637 660 - 355 116 - Mayer 554 1,749 3,000 199 589 1,200 92 151 200
New Germany 346 372 1,400 143 146 600 50 46 90 Norwood Young America 3,108 3,549 8,800 1,171 1,389 3,900 1,559 1,165 2,300
San Francisco Township 888 832 960 293 307 400 61 46 100 Victoria 4,025 7,345 15,000 1,367 2,435 5,700 932 1,502 2,270
Waconia 6,814 10,697 22,100 2,568 3,909 8,900 4,082 5,578 10,200 Waconia Township 1,284 1,228 1,500 429 434 600 72 98 400
Watertown 3,029 4,205 6,700 1,078 1,564 2,900 682 556 1,220 Watertown Township 1,432 1,204 1,100 478 468 500 207 392 400
Young America Township 838 715 760 267 266 300 105 119 120
Carver County Total 70,205 91,042 156,520 24,356 32,891 62,550 28,740 31,836 53,430
POPULATION HOUSEHOLDS EMPLOYMENT
2000 2010 2040 2000 2010 2040 2000 2010 2040
POPULATION HOUSEHOLDS EMPLOYMENT
DAKOTA COUNTY
Apple Valley 45,527 49,084 65,600 16,344 18,875 26,500 12,106 14,279 19,500
Burnsville 60,220 60,306 66,700 23,687 24,283 27,700 31,765 31,593 44,100
Castle Rock Township 1,495 1,342 1,300 514 504 520 344 356 360
Coates 163 161 150 64 66 70 252 109 110
Douglas Township 760 716 790 235 259 320 96 92 100
Eagan 63,557 64,206 79,000 23,773 25,249 31,500 42,750 49,526 70,200 Empire Township 1,638 2,444 5,300 515 792 2,000 217 255 300
Eureka Township 1,490 1,426 1,700 496 518 700 196 460 460 Farmington 12,365 21,086 31,500 4,169 7,066 12,000 3,986 4,438 7,200
Greenvale Township 684 803 890 227 275 350 68 49 630 Hampton 434 689 780 156 245 300 178 127 160
Hampton Township 986 903 1,100 320 329 450 186 85 90 Hastings (pt)18,201 22,172 30,100 6,640 8,735 12,900 8,872 8,532 11,300
Inver Grove Heights 29,751 33,880 47,600 11,257 13,476 19,900 8,168 9,442 14,000 Lakeville 43,128 55,954 82,900 13,609 18,683 30,500 10,966 13,862 23,400
Lilydale 552 623 1,000 338 375 600 354 355 420 Marshan Township 1,263 1,106 1,300 404 403 520 220 117 370
Mendota 197 198 320 80 78 130 266 270 300 Mendota Heights 11,434 11,071 13,400 4,178 4,378 5,300 8,549 11,550 14,400
Miesville 135 125 130 52 52 60 97 116 140 New Trier 116 112 150 31 41 50 30 35 60
Nininger Township 865 950 950 280 372 400 165 149 340 Northfield (pt)557 1,147 2,100 216 414 900 79 470 500
Randolph 318 436 440 117 168 180 123 122 130
Randolph Township 536 659 650 192 246 280 130 113 120
Ravenna Township 2,355 2,336 2,500 734 780 1,000 115 38 60
Rosemount 14,619 21,874 36,300 4,742 7,587 14,000 6,356 6,721 13,900
Sciota Township 285 414 500 92 140 190 21 33 500
South St. Paul 20,167 20,160 22,500 8,123 8,186 9,600 7,697 8,557 11,000
Sunfish Lake 504 521 520 173 183 210 23 8 10
Vermillion 437 419 410 160 156 170 221 93 210 Vermillion Township 1,243 1,192 1,700 395 424 660 280 90 90
Waterford Township 517 497 560 193 193 240 461 679 820 West St. Paul 19,405 19,540 23,900 8,645 8,529 10,500 8,905 7,471 10,600 Dakota County Total 355,904 398,552 524,740 131,151 152,060 210,700 154,242 170,192 245,880
HENNEPIN COUNTY
Bloomington 85,172 82,893 93,600 36,400 35,905 41,000 104,548 86,530 111,000 Brooklyn Center 29,172 30,104 34,700 11,430 10,756 13,600 16,698 11,001 15,400
Brooklyn Park 67,388 75,781 95,500 24,432 26,229 35,500 23,692 24,084 42,000 Champlin 22,193 23,089 25,500 7,425 8,328 10,000 2,734 4,012 5,600
Chanhassen (pt)- - - - - - 979 1,159 1,160 Corcoran 5,630 5,379 11,900 1,784 1,867 4,700 1,792 1,093 2,200
Crystal 22,698 22,151 23,300 9,389 9,183 10,000 5,638 3,929 5,500 Dayton (pt)4,693 4,617 10,600 1,546 1,619 4,500 1,057 921 3,000
Deephaven 3,853 3,642 3,900 1,373 1,337 1,400 1,021 688 820 Eden Prairie 54,901 60,797 84,800 20,457 23,930 34,000 51,006 48,775 70,000
Edina 47,425 47,941 53,300 20,996 20,672 23,000 52,991 47,457 56,100 Excelsior 2,393 2,188 2,600 1,199 1,115 1,300 1,823 2,220 2,200
Fort Snelling (unorg.)442 149 350 - 135 200 35,526 23,215 26,000
Golden Valley 20,281 20,371 24,300 8,449 8,816 10,300 30,142 33,194 41,500
Greenfield 2,544 2,777 4,100 817 936 1,600 337 613 750
Greenwood 729 688 810 285 290 300 161 82 350
Hanover (pt)332 609 520 113 196 200 86 36 50
Hopkins 17,367 17,591 21,600 8,359 8,366 10,000 11,979 11,009 14,000
2000 2010 2040 2000 2010 2040 2000 2010 2040
POPULATION HOUSEHOLDS EMPLOYMENT
Independence 3,236 3,504 5,400 1,088 1,241 2,200 169 587 770
Long Lake 1,842 1,768 2,100 756 732 1,000 2,510 1,093 1,930
Loretto 570 650 670 225 269 300 661 366 370
Maple Grove 50,365 61,567 84,800 17,532 22,867 33,000 18,309 29,877 49,500
Maple Plain 2,088 1,768 2,300 770 723 1,000 1,792 1,579 1,750
Medicine Lake 368 371 400 159 160 170 10 15 100
Medina 4,005 4,892 9,000 1,309 1,702 3,500 3,254 3,351 4,580 Minneapolis 382,747 382,578 466,400 162,352 163,540 202,700 308,127 281,732 356,000
Minnetonka 51,102 49,734 63,000 21,267 21,901 27,500 51,276 44,228 63,200 Minnetonka Beach 614 539 610 215 201 220 201 174 250
Minnetrista 4,358 6,384 13,000 1,505 2,176 5,000 379 665 740 Mound 9,435 9,052 10,500 3,982 3,974 4,800 1,811 1,165 1,900
New Hope 20,873 20,339 22,800 8,665 8,427 9,800 13,565 11,080 15,300 Orono 7,538 7,437 9,400 2,766 2,826 3,900 1,110 1,562 1,780
Osseo 2,434 2,430 3,100 1,035 1,128 1,500 2,312 1,749 2,530 Plymouth 65,894 70,576 87,800 24,820 28,663 35,500 53,491 46,227 66,500
Richfield 34,310 35,228 39,900 15,073 14,818 17,500 11,762 15,604 18,400 Robbinsdale 14,123 13,953 15,300 6,097 6,032 6,800 7,109 6,858 7,600
Rockford (pt)144 426 800 57 184 400 384 94 550 Rogers ◊6,051 11,197 21,300 1,973 3,748 8,200 5,414 7,907 14,800
St. Anthony (pt)5,664 5,156 6,300 2,402 2,210 3,000 1,992 1,626 2,090 St. Bonifacius 1,873 2,283 2,200 681 863 900 436 478 500
St. Louis Park 44,102 45,250 54,500 20,773 21,743 25,500 40,696 40,485 49,100 Shorewood 7,400 7,307 7,400 2,529 2,658 3,000 782 1,113 1,200
Spring Park 1,717 1,669 2,200 930 897 1,100 1,028 583 700
Tonka Bay 1,547 1,475 1,500 614 586 680 266 298 570
Wayzata 4,113 3,688 4,900 1,929 1,795 2,300 6,268 4,567 5,900
Woodland 480 437 540 173 169 180 22 8 20 Hennepin County Total 1,116,206 1,152,425 1,429,500 456,131 475,913 603,250 877,346 805,089 1,066,260 RAMSEY COUNTY
Arden Hills 9,652 9,552 13,500 2,959 2,957 4,600 12,326 12,402 18,400
Blaine (pt)- - - - - - 677 893 1,000 Falcon Heights 5,572 5,321 5,300 2,103 2,131 2,200 4,190 5,298 6,800
Gem Lake 419 393 590 139 155 250 586 526 640 Lauderdale 2,364 2,379 2,400 1,150 1,130 1,200 360 718 1,000
Little Canada 9,771 9,773 11,100 4,375 4,393 4,900 5,960 5,467 8,700 Maplewood 35,258 38,018 47,900 13,758 14,882 19,700 29,259 27,635 36,600
Mounds View 12,738 12,155 13,100 5,018 4,954 5,500 4,170 6,386 8,200 New Brighton 22,206 21,456 26,000 9,013 8,915 11,200 11,007 9,213 13,500
North Oaks 3,883 4,469 4,900 1,300 1,746 2,100 1,091 1,260 1,300 North St. Paul 11,929 11,460 13,100 4,703 4,615 5,700 3,499 2,942 3,610
Roseville 33,690 33,660 38,700 14,598 14,623 17,000 39,211 35,104 44,100 St. Anthony (pt)2,348 3,070 4,300 1,295 1,638 2,000 1,390 1,357 2,050
St. Paul 286,840 285,068 334,700 112,109 111,001 137,600 188,124 175,933 218,000 Shoreview 25,924 25,043 27,500 10,125 10,402 11,300 9,938 11,665 15,500
Spring Lake Park (pt)105 178 220 48 75 100 202 66 100 Vadnais Heights 13,069 12,302 14,500 5,064 5,066 6,300 7,164 6,678 12,600
White Bear Township 11,293 10,949 12,000 4,010 4,261 4,900 2,131 2,309 4,780 White Bear Lake (pt)23,974 23,394 27,500 9,469 9,747 12,000 12,020 11,085 11,800 Ramsey County Total 511,035 508,640 597,310 201,236 202,691 248,550 333,305 316,937 408,680
2000 2010 2040 2000 2010 2040 2000 2010 2040
POPULATION HOUSEHOLDS EMPLOYMENT
SCOTT COUNTY
Belle Plaine 3,789 6,661 13,300 1,396 2,362 5,300 1,428 1,847 3,300
Belle Plaine Township 806 878 820 266 310 320 77 69 70
Blakeley Township 496 418 370 166 165 170 70 69 100
Cedar Lake Township 2,197 2,779 3,600 719 939 1,400 91 82 340
Credit River Township 3,895 5,096 5,000 1,242 1,662 1,900 265 397 420
Elko New Market 804 4,110 12,200 286 1,259 4,500 248 317 840 Helena Township 1,440 1,648 1,700 450 548 700 473 147 150
Jackson Township 1,361 1,464 1,300 461 486 500 92 168 530 Jordan 3,833 5,470 10,700 1,349 1,871 4,300 1,321 1,587 2,900
Louisville Township 1,359 1,266 1,200 410 425 430 476 298 300 New Market Township 3,057 3,440 3,300 956 1,146 1,200 262 325 500
New Prague (pt)3,157 4,280 7,200 1,160 1,618 3,100 2,282 2,142 3,270 Prior Lake 15,917 22,796 39,300 5,645 8,447 15,700 7,972 7,766 12,900
St. Lawrence Township 472 483 810 144 161 320 145 48 50 Sand Creek Township 1,551 1,521 1,400 478 554 560 249 298 460
Savage 21,115 26,911 38,200 6,807 9,116 14,300 5,366 6,753 9,500 Shakopee 20,568 37,076 57,400 7,540 12,772 21,500 13,938 18,831 31,900
Spring Lake Township 3,681 3,631 4,100 1,217 1,267 1,600 176 390 400 Scott County Total 89,498 129,928 201,900 30,692 45,108 77,800 34,931 41,534 67,930 WASHINGTON COUNTY
Afton 2,839 2,886 3,100 996 1,081 1,300 351 411 490
Bayport 3,162 3,471 4,400 763 855 1,300 4,900 3,790 5,100 Baytown Township 1,533 1,617 2,000 492 573 760 154 69 260
Birchwood Village 968 870 840 357 351 360 20 25 30
Cottage Grove 30,582 34,589 49,300 9,932 11,719 18,600 6,263 6,484 9,600
Dellwood 1,033 1,065 1,100 353 373 450 282 277 300
Denmark Township 1,348 1,737 2,500 481 615 1,000 386 629 650
Forest Lake 14,440 18,377 28,300 5,433 7,015 12,000 6,636 6,449 9,700
Grant 4,026 4,094 4,300 1,374 1,463 1,700 750 449 840
Grey Cloud Island Township 307 295 280 117 117 120 50 10 40
Hastings (pt)3 - - 2 - - 224 64 100 Hugo 6,363 13,332 32,500 2,125 4,990 13,600 1,917 1,973 4,000
Lake Elmo 6,863 8,061 20,500 2,347 2,776 8,000 1,682 1,941 3,160 Lakeland 1,917 1,796 1,500 691 681 710 374 302 470
Lakeland Shores 355 311 360 116 117 160 20 26 40 Lake St. Croix Beach 1,140 1,053 1,000 462 460 500 50 129 130
Landfall 700 663 770 292 257 300 50 25 30 Mahtomedi 7,563 7,676 7,700 2,503 2,827 3,100 1,252 2,090 2,660
Marine on St. Croix 602 689 1,000 254 302 450 235 124 160 May Township 2,928 2,776 3,800 1,007 1,083 1,600 40 66 180
Newport 3,715 3,435 4,600 1,418 1,354 2,100 2,480 1,605 2,000 Oakdale 26,653 27,401 31,000 10,243 10,956 13,000 7,812 8,651 15,000
Oak Park Heights 3,777 4,445 5,800 1,528 1,911 2,600 2,713 4,358 7,500 Pine Springs 421 408 370 140 144 150 10 72 80
St. Marys Point 344 366 330 132 147 150 10 15 20 St. Paul Park 5,070 5,273 7,900 1,829 1,967 3,300 1,399 1,515 2,520
Scandia 3,692 3,934 5,000 1,294 1,498 2,100 272 519 730 Stillwater 15,323 18,227 22,500 5,797 7,076 9,500 10,719 9,628 11,700
Stillwater Township 2,553 2,364 2,700 833 855 1,100 120 165 250
West Lakeland Township 3,547 4,054 4,000 1,101 1,286 1,500 313 232 370
White Bear Lake (pt)351 403 680 149 198 300 131 184 200
Willernie 549 507 480 225 218 230 135 182 200
Woodbury 46,463 61,961 87,200 16,676 22,594 33,100 15,899 19,438 28,700 Washington County Total 201,130 238,136 337,810 71,462 87,859 135,140 67,649 71,897 107,210
METRO AREA 2,642,062 2,849,567 3,673,860 1,021,456 1,117,749 1,509,190 1,606,263 1,543,872 2,102,090
1
1
A Growing and Changing Twin Cities Region: Regional Forecast to 2040 February 2014
Metropolitan Council Regional Policy and Research 390 Robert Street North Saint Paul, MN 55101-1805 metrocouncil.org
The Metropolitan Council forecasts
population, households and
employment, with a 30-year horizon,
for the seven-county Minneapolis-
St. Paul region. The Council
assesses the Twin Cities region’s
relative economic competitiveness
and projects future population and
employment using a regional
economic model, REMI PI.
The Council locates regional
forecasts to specific cities and
townships through additional
modeling. The Council’s land use
model projects the likely geographic
pattern of future growth, given real
estate and location choice
dynamics, regional policies and
local land use controls.
The regional forecast, together with
local forecasts, will be incorporated
into the Thrive MSP 2040 regional
plan, scheduled for Council
adoption in May 2014.
Consistent with Minnesota Statutes
473.146 and 473.859, the regional
and local forecasts provide a shared
foundation for coordinated,
comprehensive planning by the
Council and local governments.
See About the Forecasts on p. 5.
For more information, contact:
Todd Graham
Principal Forecaster
todd.graham@metc.state.mn.us
651-602-1322
The Metropolitan Council’s forecast anticipates continued
growth and increased diversity for the seven-county
Minneapolis-St Paul region. The region’s population is
projected to grow by 824,000 in coming decades. By 2040,
people of color will comprise 40 percent of the region; senior
citizens, 21 percent.
Metropolitan Council Regional Forecast to 2040
2010
Population 2,850,000
2020
3,102,000
2030
3,381,000
2040
3,674,000
Households 1,118,000 1,257,000 1,388,000 1,509,000
Employment 1,548,000
1,819,000 1,953,000 2,097,000
The seven-county Minneapolis-St. Paul region is projected to gain
824,000 people in coming decades, reaching 3,674,000 residents in
2040, up from 2,850,000 in 2010. Projected growth rates, 9 percent per
decade, are below peak growth rates seen in the 1980s and the 1990s –
but above-average compared to national projections for the same period.
Natural population growth, or births outpacing deaths, will add 590,000
residents. Natural population growth will account for 72 percent of the
total population growth from 2010 to 2040. Birth rates are higher among
families of color than white families, contributing steadily and gradually to
the racial and ethnic diversity of the region.
More than one-quarter (28 percent) of the region’s population gain will be
driven by migration. The Twin Cities region is likely to gain 355,000 new
residents through international immigration while losing 128,000
residents to domestic out-migration, for a net migration gain of 227,000
during the 30-years forecast period.
The Twin Cities region will continue to be an immigration gateway
throughout the 30-year period, and immigration will substantially
accelerate the region’s diversity trend. Of the expected international
immigrants, 85 percent will be people of color, from all continents; 15
percent will be white, non-Latino, mainly from Europe and Canada.
2 2
Net domestic migration – the flow of
movers between the Twin Cities region
and the rest of the nation – amounts to
a net loss of 128,000 residents during
2010-40. This is not a new trend. US
Census data shows emigrants leaving
the region have outnumbered new
domestic arrivals throughout the past
decade.
This net loss is directly related to
economic conditions: The regional
economy did not gain employment
during the decade ending in 2010. An
improving economy will steer this trend
over time. Domestic migration will
respond to new workforce demand.
Still, geographic situation and perception of the Twin Cities region are challenges to attracting new residents. While
employment and business opportunities draw in workers and students, the region loses people who have priorities
beyond work and school. For example, many long-time residents have family or sentimental connections with
Greater Minnesota; much of the Twin Cities’ domestic migration deficit is due to returns or relocations to the rest of
the state.
Immigration and natural population
growth together will replenish the Twin
Cities region’s school enrollments and
workforce. The region’s under-25
population will grow 18 percent, from
965,000 in 2010 to 1,143,000 in 2040.
This will partly offset the protracted
retirement boom that is expected to
last for the next 20 years.
While every age cohort will grow,
none will grow as fast as the senior
citizens population. Twin Cities
region’s senior population will double
between 2010 and 2030, and will
continue to grow throughout the
projections period, from 307,000
seniors in 2010 to 781,000 in 2040. Between the aging of baby boomers and longer life expectancies, senior
citizens will become a substantial market segment. In 2010, senior citizens were 11 percent of the region’s
population; in 2040, seniors will be 21 percent of the population.
-132,000 -70,000 -39,000
-19,000
108,000 95,000 122,000 138,000
231,000 221,000 195,000 174,000
2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040
Components of Population Growth, 2000-2040
Natural Growth
International Migrants
Domestic Migrants
581,000 594,000 623,000 686,000
384,000 410,000 433,000 457,000
1,579,000 1,624,000 1,644,000 1,750,000
307,000 475,000 681,000
781,000
2010 2020 2030 2040
Population by Age, 2010-2040
Ages 65+
Ages 25-64
Ages 15-24
Ages 0-14
A Growing and Changing Twin Cities Region: Regional Forecast to 2040
Metropolitan Council Regional Policy and Research 390 Robert Street North Saint Paul, MN 55101-1805 metrocouncil.org
3 3
As the region’s age profile
changes, its households mix
also changes: The senior
citizens population will more
than double by 2030; so too
will the number of senior-
headed households.
With seniors making
decisions for 32 percent of
region’s households in 2040,
their needs and preferences
will become a predominant
driver of the housing market.
Twin Cities region’s seniors
are mostly long-time
residents, and mostly have
lived in single-family
detached housing. Some may choose to “age in place.” But almost half of senior-headed households are people
living alone. Many seniors living alone, and senior couples, will choose to move, opting for attached housing,
apartments, and age-restricted housing options. As they move, the turnover of single-family detached houses will
balloon, offsetting the need for greater supply of single-family detached housing.
The Council forecasts 1,509,000 households in 2040, up 35 percent from the 1,118,000 households counted by
Census 2010. The overall gains, and the net additional housing implied, are in line with historical trends. But the
balance of market demand will be very different from recent history. The number of senior-headed households will
grow by 200,000, driven upward by the aging and longevity of baby boomers. As baby boomers leave the ranks of
family-age or working-age households, those market segments will grow at much reduced rates. The number of
family-age or working-age households with 2 or more people will grow by only 67,000 – just 17 percent of expected
households growth.
Between the churn of migration and higher birth rates among Latino, black, and Asian populations, the Twin Cities
region will become more racially and ethnically diverse. In 2010, people of color comprised 24 percent of the
regional population. By 2040, people of color will be 40 percent of the region. And the workforce of 2040 will reflect
the diversity seen today in the region’s elementary schools.
The population of color will more than double during the forecast period, from 676,000 in 2010 to 1,486,000 in
2040, while the white population will peak and level off at its current level. Among people of color, each racial or
ethnic group is forecast to more than double. The Latino population will increase from 168,000 in 2010 to 373,000
in 2040. The black population will increase from 234,000 in 2010 to 515,000 in 2040. And the population of Asians
and other people of color will increase from 274,000 in 2010 to 598,000 in 2040.
A Growing and Changing Twin Cities Region: Regional Forecast to 2040
229,000 242,000 239,000 253,000
280,000 296,000 286,000 300,000
418,000 420,000 433,000 465,000
90,000 137,000 198,000 241,000 100,000
162,000
231,000
250,000
2010 2020 2030 2040
Households by Type, 2010-2040
Age 65+: 2+ person household
Age 65+: 1 person household
Under 65: 3+ person household
Under 65: 2 person household
Under 65: 1 person household
Metropolitan Council Regional Policy and Research 390 Robert Street North Saint Paul, MN 55101-1805 metrocouncil.org
4 4
The Council’s population forecasts
reveal contrasting trends in the age
distributions of white residents and
people of color. This will have
significant implications for the future
workforce of the region.
The number of white residents, ages
25-64, will shrink by 19 percent, from
1,262,000 in 2010 to 1,020,000 in
2040. Concurrently, the working-age
population of color will more than
double, from 317,000 in 2010 to
730,000 in 2040. Within the workforce,
diversity will grow. By 2040, people of
color will comprise 42 percent of
working-age residents.
A Growing and Changing Twin Cities Region: Regional Forecast to 2040
Metropolitan Council Regional Policy and Research 390 Robert Street North Saint Paul, MN 55101-1805 metrocouncil.org
Similarly, the Council projects an increasingly diverse student body in the region. The population of color under age
25 will grow by 180 percent, from 335,000 in 2010 to 601,000 in 2040. In contrast, the number of white residents
under age 25 will fall from 630,000 in 2010 to 543,000 in 2040, pulling down the share of whites among school-age
children and young adults.
Migration is the major factor driving this demographic transition. People moving from the Twin Cities region to other
parts of Minnesota or the nation are mostly white and older (retirees). In contrast, the region’s gain of international
immigrants is predominantly people of color, mostly people in their 20s, and often immigrating with children.
2,174,000 2,210,000 2,212,000 2,188,000
234,000 309,000 402,000 515,000 274,000 364,000 476,000 598,000
168,000 219,000
291,000
373,000
2010 2020 2030 2040
Population by Race and Ethnicity, 2010-2040
Latino
Asian and Other
Black or African
American
White
366,000 343,000 318,000 314,000 216,000 251,000 304,000 372,000
264,000 258,000 242,000 229,000 119,000 152,000 191,000 229,000
1,262,000 1,186,000 1,065,000 1,020,000
317,000 437,000 578,000
730,000
282,000 424,000 586,000 625,000
25,000
51,000
96,000
157,000
2010 White 2020 White 2030 White 2040 White 2010 People of
Color
2020 People of
Color
2030 People of
Color
2040 People of
Color
Population by Race / Ethnicity and Age
Ages 65+
Ages 25-64
Ages 15-24
Ages 0-14
5 5
The Council forecasts employment growth of 549,000 jobs, up from 1,548,000 in 2010 to 2,097,000 in 2040.
Employment will grow rapidly in the short-term (18 percent growth in the 2010s) and at a slower pace (7 percent
growth) in the 2020s and 2030s. This growth compares to a net employment loss during the 2000s, and previous
gains of 34 percent in the 1970s, 22 percent in the 1980s, and 26 percent in the 1990s.
779,000
1,040,000
1,273,000
1,608,000 1,548,000
1,819,000 1,953,000 2,097,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Historic and Forecasted Employment
A Growing and Changing Twin Cities Region: Regional Forecast to 2040
The region’s Gross Metro Product, the sum of value added by all industry sectors, will rise to $409 billion in 2040 –
equivalent to 1.5 percent of the US Gross Domestic Product. For context, the Twin Cities region has less than 1.0
percent of the nation’s population.
Employment opportunities in the Twin Cities region attract not only new migrants, but also commuting workers
living in Greater Minnesota or Wisconsin. In 2010, the Council estimates that 6.8 percent of earnings at Twin Cities
workplaces are earned by external commuters. (This is offset by 1.3 percent of residents’ earnings coming from
work in Greater Minnesota, Wisconsin, or elsewhere.) This balance of long-distance commuters, and earnings
returning with to their places of residence, will persist long-term, as the Twin Cities region remains the predominant
economic center for Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
About the Council’s Forecasts
To prepare its long-range forecast, the Metropolitan Council uses REMI PI, a regional economic model. The REMI
PI model utilizes computable general equilibrium and new economic geography techniques to project forward time-
series of economic and demographic outcomes. The REMI PI projections are informed by data on the region’s
industry mix, costs and productivity, and analysis of regional competitiveness within the national economy.
Employment, migration, and population outcomes directly flow from projected economic performance.
To obtain household counts, the REMI PI population projection is parsed into household types using race-specific,
age-specific household formation rates from analysis of Census data.
Metropolitan Council Regional Policy and Research 390 Robert Street North Saint Paul, MN 55101-1805 metrocouncil.org