HomeMy WebLinkAbout#23 CC 8 18 15 Projected Growth AnalysisMAYOR & COUNCIL COMMUNICATION
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DATE: 8/18/15
REGULAR
ITEM: #23 AGENDA ITEM: Projected City Growth Analysis SUBMITTED BY: Clark Schroeder Interim City Administrator
THROUGH: Cathy Bendel and Kyle Klatt REVIEWED BY: City Staff
SUGGESTED ORDER OF BUSINESS:
- Introduction of Item .............................................................. City Administrator
- Report/Presentation…………………………………………City Administrator
- Questions from Council to Staff ............................................. Mayor Facilitates
- Call for Motion ............................................................... Mayor & City Council
- Discussion ....................................................................... Mayor & City Council
- Action on Motion .................................................................... Mayor Facilitates POLICY RECOMMENDER: City Council
FISCAL IMPACT: Unknown SUMMARY AND ACTION REQUESTED:
A request was made by Mayor Pearson to prepare an analysis of Lake Elmo’s projected
population growth. As with any future projection, assumptions need to be made that may or may
not come to pass. In just one assumption, the build out of the downtown mixed use zone could affect the number of residential units built considerably. Another variable in calculating
population growth is the assumed people per residence. Some developments might have 2.0
people per residence while other developments might have 2.5 or 3.0. A full analysis, breaking
down each development and the expected people per development would be something the
council could request of staff for a future meeting.
For this presentation, the most recent number of build outs for all projects has been used (2,043
new homes) to show where the City is at related to the Met Council most recently drafted local
forecast targets for 2020, 2030 and 2040 (letter attached).
City Council Meeting [Regular Agenda Item 23]
August 18, 2015
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Please note that the Met Council targets reflect a decreasing number of residents per household
in the future (2.76 per HH for 2020, 2.66 per HH for 2030 and 2.56 per HH for 2040).
LEGISLATIVE HISTORY:
RECOMMENDATION: Discussion, information, and future direction for analysis.
ATTACHMENTS: 1. Met Council letter dated April 9, 2015 regarding updated draft forecasts for Lake Elmo
2. Growth projections; snapshot as of 8/14/15