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Home My WebLink About#20 Density Analysis 2016 for 2040 System StatementMAYOR AND COUNCIL COMMUNICATION DATE: 12/6/2016 REGULAR ITEM #: 20 AGENDA ITEM: Revise Comprehensive Plan to Meet Population Targets and Growth Plan SUBMITTED BY: Stephen Wensman, Planning Director THROUGH: Kristina Handt, City Administrator REVIEWED BY: Kristina Handt, City Administrator Emily Becker, City Planner BACKGROUND: Prior to the release of the 2015 Metropolitan Council System Statement, the City negotiated for reductions to the 2040 population forecasts. After the 2015 System Statement was released by the Metropolitan Council, City Staff had anticipated subsequent land use plan amendments to reduce the overall amount of housing planned within the I-94 corridor urban service districts. ISSUE BEFORE COUNCIL: To discuss whether the comprehensive plan needs to be amended to reduce amount of housing planned within the I-94 corridor urban service districts PROPOSAL DETAILS/ANALYSIS: 2015 System Statement. MN State Statute requires cities to have comprehensive plans that are in conformity with metropolitan system plans. The Metropolitan Council approves such plans and has issued a system statement which provides: • forecasted population, households, and employment through the year 2040; • guidance on appropriate densities to ensure that regional services and costly regional infrastructure can be provided as efficiently as possible. • affordable housing need allocation; The 2015 System Statement for Lake Elmo was issued by the Met Council in 2015 with forecasts for the next comprehensive plan update: City Council Meeting 12/6/2016 Regular Agenda Item #20 Page 2 2010 (actual) 2014 (est.) 2020 2030 2040 Population 8,061 8,594 10,500 14,100 18,200 Households 2,776 2,865 3,800 5,300 7,100 Employment 1,941 2,366 2,900 3,350 3,800 The Metropolitan Council has also determined the regional need for low and moderate income housing for the decade of 2021-2030. Lake Elmo’s share of the region’s need for low and moderate income housing is 508 new units affordable to households earning 80% of area median income (AMI) or below. Of these new units, the need is for 27 affordable households earning at or below 30% of AMI, 179 affordable to households earning 31% to 50% of AMI, and 302 affordable to households earning 51% to 80% of AMI. These forecasts are for new units which translates to a Met Council requirement to have land area guided for Medium Density and High Density Residential in the Comprehensive Land Use Plan. Affordable Housing Need Allocation for Lake Elmo At or below 30% AMI 27 31 to 50% AMI 179 51 to 80% AMI 302 Total Units 508 As part of forecasted growth, a percentage of it is required to be sewered growth: Forecast Year Forecast Component Population Households Employment 2010 MCES Sewered 0 0 623 2010 Unsewered 8,061 2,776 1,318 2020 MCES Sewered 2,912 1,059 2,338 2020 Unsewered 7,588 2,741 562 2030 MCES Sewered 6,160 2,240 2,788 2030 Unsewered 7,940 3,060 562 2040 MCES Sewered 9,408 3,421 3,238 2040 Unsewered 8,792 3,679 562 City Council Meeting 12/6/2016 Regular Agenda Item #20 Page 3 Metropolitan Council’s Residential Density Calculations. The Metropolitan Council keeps a running tabulation of land guided for urban residential growth, and affordable housing. The current tabulation is as follows: Density Range Gross Acres Min Units Max Units Category Min Max Urban Low Density 2.5 4 519.49 1299 2078 Urban Medium Density 4 7.5 381.69 1527 2863 Urban High Density 7.5 15 143.37 1075 2151 Village Urban Low Density Res (V-LDR) 1.5 2 245.95 369 492 Village Urban Medium Density Res (V- MDR) 2.5 5 121.7 304 609 Village Mixed Use (VMX) 6 10 164.4 543 1644 TOTALS 1576.6 5117 9836 Sewered Analysis. From the System Statement and the above table, the City currently has in excess of 1, 696 planned sewered residential units than required for the 2040 Comprehensive Plan and 20 more affordable units than was required for the 2030 comprehensive plan that could possibly be carried forward to meet the 2040 requirement. According to Lisa Barajas from the Metropolitan Council, the City’s Comprehensive Land Use Plan has sufficient land guided at Urban High Density to meet the City’s 2030 affordable housing need, but the HDR category will need to be guided for slightly higher densities, from 7.5 to 8 du/acre, in order to meet affordable threasholds. In general, to meet affordable criteria a comprehensive plan needs to: Option 1: Guide sufficient land at a minimum density of: • 8 units/acre to meet a community’s total need Option 2: Guide sufficient land at a minimum density of: • 12 units/acre to meet need at 50% or less AMI (combines the two lower affordability bands) • 6 units/acre to meet need at 51%-80% AMI Also, according to Lisa Barajas, as currently guided, the City has an excess of 14 acres of HDR guided land to meet the City’s 2015 System Statement’s affordable requirement. Rural Analysis. The 2030 comprehensive land use plan guides enough land in the rural areas to meet the city’s 2040 unsewered housing targets (roughly 3,691). The recent change to the OP Ordinance has the potential to increase the number of rural households by an additional 494 units. The recently discussed proposal to guide rural parcels 20 acres or less to Residential Estates might add another 418 rural units (see attached 11/14/16 Planning Commission report – Residential Districts – Allowed Density for a more detailed analysis of rural development density). City Council Meeting 12/6/2016 Regular Agenda Item #20 Page 4 FISCAL IMPACT: N/A RECOMMENDATION: Staff is respectfully requesting that the Council discuss the need to revise comprehensive plan to meet 2015 population targets and growth targets identified in the 2015 System Statement. ATTACHMENTS: • 2030 Affordable Housing in System Statement email. • 11/14/16 Planning Commission Report - Residential Districts – Allowed Density BUSINESS ITEM 5c PLANNING COMMISSION DATE: 11/14/16 AGENDA ITEM: 5C– DISCUSSION ITEM ITEM: Residential Districts – Allowed Density SUBMITTED BY: Stephen Wensman, Planning Director REVIEWED BY: Emily Becker, City Planner. Kristina Handt, City Administrator. BACKGROUND: During a recent City Council meeting, after the approval of the Open Space Preservation ordinance amendment, there was discussion regarding the subdivision of property in the rural zoning districts in to smaller lots than what is currently allowed. The discussion referenced other discussions in the past regarding this same matter. The subdivision of property into 2.5 acre lots is limited to the Residential Estates zoning district, and such zoning is limited in the City to a small area. Furthermore, the Comprehensive Plan guides only a small new area as residential estate. The City Council is requesting that the Planning Commission discuss the expansion of 2.5 acre or similar sized lot development in the rural districts. PLANNING ZONING ISSUES: Current Minimum Lot Size Standards The table below outlines the minimum lot area (in acres) required for properties within Rural Districts. RT A RR RS RE 20 40 10 1.5 2.5 Open Space Preservation Developments The recently approved Open Space Preservation ordinance requires a minimum land area of a nominal contiguous 20 contiguous acres for an open space planned unit development. The land must also be located in the Rural Residential, Agricultural or Residential Estate zoning districts. Any property that is in these zoning districts but does not or cannot meet the 20 acre-minimum 2 BUSINESS ITEM 5c requirement through combining with adjacent parcels cannot further develop as an OP development. Subdivision of these parcels would be limited to the lot sizes specified in the table above. Such parcels are outlined in the attached map. The current limitation on rural estate development in favor of OP development is consistent with the current comprehensive plan policy and vision statements: “Encourage the majority of the new households created in areas north of 10th Street north and outside the Village Area to be efficiently developed in a rural context in the form of Open Space Development cluster neighborhoods.” “Lake Elmo’s land use plan is guided by its core vision of creating and maintaining a rural community within the Metropolitan region.” “The remainder of the community north of 10th Street and surrounding the Old Village will continue Lake Elmo’s long tradition of providing rural living opportunities within the Metropolitan area.” The new (OP) Open Space Preservation Ordinance allows cluster development on properties 20 acres or greater. Previous Planning Staff had conducted an analysis to determine the potential number of housing units that could be developed in the Agriculture and Rural Residential zoning districts under the OP Ordinance when the minimum acreage was 40 acres. The total acreage zoned identified (less 15% assumed unbuildable) was multiplied by (.45) to determine the number of households. The number of households possible under the old ordinance was 524. Staff did a similar exercise identifying lots between 20 and 40 acres in size have determined that the new ordinance would allow an additional 494 households to be developed under the OP Ordinance, or a total of 1,018 households. Old OP Ordinance - Min 40 Acres Required Zoning District # of Parcels Total Acreage # of Households Total Acreage - assuming 15% unbuildable area # of Households (realistic) A 8 586.28 263.826 498.338 224.2521 RR 13 783.24 352.458 665.754 299.5893 524.00 3 BUSINESS ITEM 5c New OP Ordinance - Min 20 Acres Required Zoning District # of Parcels Total Acreage # of Households Total Acreage - assuming 15% unbuildable area # of Households (realistic) A 20 941.57 423.7065 800.3345 360.150525 RR 45 1721.24 774.558 1463.054 658.3743 1018.00 Possible Increase in # of households by allowing Min 20 Acres for OP Development (1018-524 = 494) 494 The remaining rural properties, 20 acres or less in size, are unable to develop into OP developments. These properties are currently limited to 1 unit per 10 acres under Rural Residential zoning, or 1 unit per 40 under Agriculture zoning. If the City were to allow rural properties, 5-20 acres in size, to develop into 2.5 acre lots, as could be done under Residential Estates zoning, the city might see an additional 418 households. Zoning District # of Lots 5-20 acres Potential Increase in Number of Lots Under 2.5 Acre Minimum Standard for lots 5-20 acres A 29 81 RR 136 337 418 (new households)* *(new lots - parent lots subtracted) Total rural growth under with the new OP ordinance and if the city were to allow 2.5 acre minimum lots elsewhere in the rural districts would be approximately 1,436 households, which would result in potentially 556 more unsewered households and 1,329 more unsewered population than forecasted for 2040. (Met Council Forecasted Unsewered Households = 3,679) (2014 MC Est. Unsewered Households = 2, 865 – 66 sewered lots = 2,799 rural households) (Future rural households with OP and 2.5 acre zoning = 2,799 +1,436 (new rural households) = 4,235 households) 4,235 – 3,679 = 556* (MC Forecasted Unsewered Pop. 8792/MC Forecasted Unsewered HH of 3679 = 2.39) 1,329 2015 System Statement. MN State Statute requires cities to have comprehensive plans that are in conformity with metropolitan system plans. The Metropolitan Council approves such plans and has issued a system statement which provides: • forecasted population, households, and employment through the year 2040; 4 BUSINESS ITEM 5c • guidance on appropriate densities to ensure that regional services and costly regional infrastructure can be provided as efficiently as possible. • affordable housing need allocation; The 2015 System Statement for Lake Elmo was issued by the Met Council in 2015 with forecasts for the next comprehensive plan update: 2010 (actual) 2014 (est.) 2020 2030 2040 Population 8,061 8,594 10,500 14,100 18,200 Households 2,776 2,865 3,800 5,300 7,100 Employment 1,941 2,366 2,900 3,350 3,800 The Metropolitan Council has also determined the regional need for low and moderate income housing for the decade of 2021-2030. Lake Elmo’s share of the region’s need for low and moderate income housing is 508 new units affordable to households earning 80% of area median income (AMI) or below. Of these new units, the need is for 27 affordable households earning at or below 30% of AMI, 179 affordable to households earning 31% to 50% of AMI, and 302 affordable to households earning 51% to 80% of AMI. These forecasts are for new units which translates to a Met Council requirement to have land area guided for Medium Density and High Density Residential in the Comprehensive Land Use Plan. Affordable Housing Need Allocation for Lake Elmo At or below 30% AMI 27 31 to 50% AMI 179 51 to 80% AMI 302 Total Units 508 As part of forecasted growth, a percentage of it is required to be sewered growth: Forecast Year Forecast Component Population Households Employment 2010 MCES Sewered 0 0 623 2010 Unsewered 8,061 2,776 1,318 2020 MCES Sewered 2,912 1,059 2,338 2020 Unsewered 7,588 2,741 562 2030 MCES Sewered 6,160 2,240 2,788 2030 Unsewered 7,940 3,060 562 2040 MCES Sewered 9,408 3,421 3,238 2040 Unsewered 8,792 3,679 562 RECOMMENDATION: Staff is recommending Planning Commission discuss allowing smaller lots in the Rural Districts. 5 BUSINESS ITEM 5c ATTACHMENTS: • Map of properties zoned Agricultural, Rural Residential, and Residential Estate under 20 acres.