HomeMy WebLinkAboutDensity Analysis 2016 for 2040 System StatementMAYOR AND COUNCIL COMMUNICATION
DATE: 12/6/2016
REGULAR
ITEM #: 22
AGENDA ITEM: Revise Comprehensive Plan to Meet Population Targets and Growth Plan
SUBMITTED BY: Stephen Wensman, Planning Director
THROUGH: Kristina Handt, City Administrator
REVIEWED BY: Kristina Handt, City Administrator
Emily Becker, City Planner
BACKGROUND:
Prior to the release of the 2015 Metropolitan Council System Statement, the City negotiated for
reductions to the 2040 population forecasts. After the 2015 System Statement was released by the
Metropolitan Council, City Staff had anticipated subsequent land use plan amendments to reduce the
overall amount of housing planned within the I-94 corridor urban service districts.
ISSUE BEFORE COUNCIL:
To discuss whether the comprehensive plan needs to be amended to reduce amount of housing planned
within the I-94 corridor urban service districts
PROPOSAL DETAILS/ANALYSIS:
2015 System Statement.
MN State Statute requires cities to have comprehensive plans that are in conformity with metropolitan
system plans. The Metropolitan Council approves such plans and has issued a system statement which
provides:
• forecasted population, households, and employment through the year 2040;
• guidance on appropriate densities to ensure that regional services and costly regional
infrastructure can be provided as efficiently as possible; and
• affordable housing need allocation.
All three of these provisions must be met equally with the comprehensive plan update.
City Council Meeting 12/20/2016 Regular Agenda Item #22
Page 2
The 2015 System Statement for Lake Elmo was issued by the Met Council in 2015 with forecasts for the
next comprehensive plan update:
2010 (actual) 2014 (est.) 2020 2030 2040 Population 8,061 8,594 10,500 14,100 18,200
Households 2,776 2,865 3,800 5,300 7,100
Employment 1,941 2,366 2,900 3,350 3,800
The Metropolitan Council has also determined the regional need for low and moderate income housing
for the decade of 2021-2030. Lake Elmo’s share of the region’s need for low and moderate income
housing is 508 new units affordable to households earning 80% of area median income (AMI) or below.
Of these new units, the need is for 27 affordable households earning at or below 30% of AMI, 179
affordable to households earning 31% to 50% of AMI, and 302 affordable to households earning 51% to
80% of AMI. These forecasts are for new units which translates to a Met Council requirement to have
land area guided for Medium Density and High Density Residential in the Comprehensive Land Use Plan.
Affordable Housing Need Allocation for Lake Elmo
At or below 30% AMI 27 31 to 50% AMI 179
51 to 80% AMI 302
Total Units 508
As part of forecasted growth, a percentage of it is required to be sewered growth:
Forecast Year
Forecast Component
Population
Households
Employment
2010 MCES Sewered 0 0 623
2010 Unsewered 8,061 2,776 1,318
2020 MCES Sewered 2,912 1,059 2,338
2020 Unsewered 7,588 2,741 562
2030 MCES Sewered 6,160 2,240 2,788
2030 Unsewered 7,940 3,060 562
2040 MCES Sewered 9,408 3,421 3,238
2040 Unsewered 8,792 3,679 562
City Council Meeting 12/20/2016 Regular Agenda Item #22
Page 3
Again, the population/housing, employment, affordable housing and sewered/unsewered targets must all
be met with the comprehensive plan update.
Metropolitan Council’s Residential Density Calculations.
The Metropolitan Council keeps a running tabulation of land guided for urban residential growth, and
affordable housing. The current tabulation is as follows:
Density Range Gross
Acres
Min
Units
Max
Units Category Min Max
Urban Low Density 2.5 4 519.49 1299 2078
Urban Medium Density 4 7.5 381.69 1527 2863
Urban High Density 7.5 15 143.37 1075 2151
Village Urban Low Density Res (V-LDR) 1.5 2 245.95 369 492
Village Urban Medium Density Res (V-
MDR) 2.5 5 121.7 304 609
Village Mixed Use (VMX) 6 10 164.4 543 1644
TOTALS 1576.6 5117 9836
Sewered Analysis.
From the System Statement and the above table, the City currently has in excess of 1, 696 planned sewered
residential units than required for the 2040 Comprehensive Plan and 20 more affordable units than was
required for the 2030 comprehensive plan that could possibly be carried forward to meet the 2040
requirement. According to Lisa Barajas from the Metropolitan Council, the City’s Comprehensive Land
Use Plan has sufficient land guided at Urban High Density to meet the City’s 2030 affordable housing need,
but the HDR category will need to be guided for slightly higher densities, from 7.5 to 8 du/acre, in order to
meet affordable threasholds. In general, to meet affordable criteria a comprehensive plan needs to:
Option 1: Guide sufficient land at a minimum density of: • 8 units/acre to meet a community’s total
need
Option 2: Guide sufficient land at a minimum density of: • 12 units/acre to meet need at 50% or
less AMI (combines the two lower affordability bands) • 6 units/acre to meet need at 51%-80%
AMI
Also, according to Lisa Barajas, as currently guided, the City has an excess of 14 acres of HDR guided land
to meet the City’s 2015 System Statement’s affordable requirement.
Rural Analysis.
The 2030 comprehensive land use plan guides enough land in the rural areas to meet the city’s 2040
unsewered housing targets (roughly 3,691). The recent change to the OP Ordinance has the potential to
increase the number of rural households by an additional 494 units. The recently discussed proposal to
guide rural parcels 20 acres or less to Residential Estates might add another 418 rural units (see attached
11/14/16 Planning Commission report – Residential Districts – Allowed Density for a more detailed
analysis of rural development density).
City Council Meeting 12/20/2016 Regular Agenda Item #22
Page 4
For comparison purposes, if the rural properties less than 20 acres were to be developed cooperatively as
OP developments, rather than as RE development, the number of new units would be 380, rather than 418
listed above.
FISCAL IMPACT:
N/A
RECOMMENDATION:
Councilmember Fliflet is requesting that the Council discuss the need to revise comprehensive plan to
meet 2015 population targets and growth targets identified in the 2015 System Statement.
ATTACHMENTS:
• 2030 Affordable Housing in System Statement email.
• 11/14/16 Planning Commission Report - Residential Districts – Allowed Density
• OP exhibit for rural properties less than 20 acres in size.