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Completed projects built with subsidies would generate less tax money than <br /> • cities and bond holders expected. New projects -- such as the Mermaid -- might <br /> p <br /> not get built at all. <br /> The changes would result from Gov. Jesse Ventura's plan to have the state <br /> essentially take over education funding, which would lower local property taxes <br /> on all buildings; and from a separate reduction in property-tax rates on <br /> commercial-industrial properties. <br /> The Minnesota Historical Society's director told legislators recently that the <br /> changes would create a $4 million funding gap for the long-planned eight-story <br /> building to be built within the ruins of the historic Washburn Crosby Mill on the <br /> banks of the Mississippi. <br /> "It would require totally rethinking the project," said director Nina Archabal. <br /> For the first year, analysts have put the loss of property-tax money from tax- <br /> increment projects statewide at more than $130 million. House leaders have <br /> offered $195 million in grants to help cities make up the loss. Some observers <br /> • fear the grant money won't be enough, considering that many of the 2,103 tax- <br /> increment districts and 436 Minnesota cities that use the subsidy might need to <br /> be bailed out. <br /> "The problem, of course, is we don't know how much we need," said Andrea <br /> Stearns, a lobbyist for the League of Minnesota Cities. "The problem may be <br /> much worse five years down the road." <br /> Others don't share Stearns' alarm. <br /> "It's the old saying, 'If you build a house of cards, should you blame the wind?" <br /> said Lyle Wray, executive director of the Citizens League, a non-profit group that <br /> has criticized what it sees as the too-liberal granting of subsidies. <br /> How it works <br /> Tax-increment financing is popular with developers because some of their costs <br /> are shifted to taxpayers. It's popular with city officials because some of the <br /> subsidy costs are shifted indirectly to taxpayers statewide. <br /> • <br />