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As the numerous members of Minnesota's Baby Boomer generation' move into the later seasons of their lives, <br />mortality rates and totals will rise. According to our projectionsi', within the next three decades, the number of <br />births in Minnesota will be eclipsed by the number of deaths—for the first time in our state's history (see Figure <br />2). When that occurs, by the early 2040s, if our state is to experience any population growth at all, it will <br />necessarily be from migration. Absent positive net migration at that time, the prospect of a declining population <br />base would mean reduced consumer spending and tax revenues, with the attendant challenges to maintaining <br />economic growth and fulfilling public priorities. Given this confluence of demographic and economic factors, <br />migration will be increasingly important to Minnesota's future. <br />Figure 2: Minnesota's Projected Net Migration And Natural Change, 2015-2065 <br />35,000 - - - - - - --- - <br />30,000 -- <br />25,000 - - --- -- - <br />20,000 -, - --- - - <br />15,000 <br />Natural Change (Births -Deaths) <br />- - - --- --- - <br />� Net Migration <br />10,000 - - <br />5,000 --_ -- ---- <br />0 <br />N O N O N O N O N O N <br />-5,000 O'— <br />N N N N N N N N N N N <br />Source: MN Sate Dem.,r phk Cenner p-J-d.n, <br />Does Minnesota Gain Or Lose People Because Of Migration? <br />Over the past two decades, Minnesota has consistently gained more people than it has lost to other places. In <br />the 1990s Minnesota gained an average of 15,500 people each year due to migration (See Figure 3). Since 2000, <br />gains have been much slower, dipping to just 2,000 during the Great Recessionz and the years immediately <br />following (2008-2010). In the most recent period, net gains from migration have picked up again, averaging about <br />6,000 people per year between 2011 and 2014, though still much lower gains than those experienced in the <br />1990s. These overall net figures are the result of considerable volumes of individuals moving both into and out <br />of the state, and the majority of this movement is offsetting. However, examining the characteristics of these <br />many currents of migration is revealing. <br />I The Baby Boomer generation is defined as individuals born in years 1946 to 1964. In 2015, the Boomers will be between 50 (prior to their birthdays) and <br />69 years old. <br />1 2 According to the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research, the latest U.S, recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009. <br />aser <br />Page 15"9 LMIN STATE DEMOG RAPHIC CENTER = JANUARY2015 <br />