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Planning for Housing by Wendy Grey, AICP H istorically, the purchase of a house has been the single largest investment most families make. People select a new house based on criteria such as afford- ability, whether it is in a good school district, and whether they feel comfortable with the neighbors and neighborhood. In recent years another factor was also added to the mix: the in central cities, many immi- grants now reside in suburbs and rural areas. Age. The most significant age group in terms of numbers is the Baby Boomer generation – born between 1946 and 1964. Having been the driving force behind the expansion of subur- ban living, Boomers were expected to sell their homes and relocate to popular retirement areas. Gen Xers, born between 1965 and 1980, are now the prime market for family orient- ed homes. However, Gen Xers have had to deal with a higher cost of living over the past decade, and have often found themselves priced out of the housing market as they’ve tried to move up the property ladder – especially as more Boomers have stayed put. The crash in the housing assumption that, almost regard- less of the choice they made, the house purchased would increase in value. With the end of the housing bubble, this is no longer the case. It is important to remember that there are also broad demo- graphic patterns that influence the demand for housing, the most significant being migra- tion, immigration, and age. Migration. We have histori- cally been a mobile society. We move to pursue better opportu- nities. The huge migration to the Sunbelt over the past 25 years is a recent example of this pattern. Immigration. Much of our population growth is coming from immigration. Between 2000 and 2007, the immigrant population grew by 22 percent, to 38 million.1 While in the past the majority of immigrants lived 14 PLANNING COMMISSIONERS JOURNAL / NUMBER 78 / SPRING 2010 market and the recession have affected the anticipated trends in migration and immigration and people’s housing options in the short term. With unemployment and foreclosures up and mort- gage lending restricted, people are not relocating, and the buy- ing and selling of houses is down. Immigration has also slowed. One key role for planners and planning commissioners is to consider strategies that will help recreate viable neighbor- hoods for current and future 1 William Frey, et al., Getting Current: Recent Demographic Trends in Metro- politan Areas (The Brookings Institu- tion Metropolitan Policy Program, 2009), p.6 2 See, e.g., V. Gail Easley, FAICP, and David A. Therique, “Practice Noncon- formities,” Zoning Practice No. 11 (November 2009), and Dwight H. Mer- riam, FAICP, “Practice Redevelop- ment,” Zoning Practice No. 12 (December 2009). GEN XERS, BORN BETWEEN 1965 AND 1980, ARE NOW THE PRIME MARKET FOR FAMILY ORIENTED HOMES. Housing: “One-Size-Fits-All” No Longer Works by Edward T. McMahon B ack in July, Builder Maga- zine published an article titled “Brave New World: After the Bust, Builders Might Be Surprised at What Future Shoppers Will Want,” by John Caufield, Jenny Sullivan, and Nigel Maynard. To gather data for this piece, the magazine commissioned American Lives, a California- based market research firm run by pollster Brooke Warrick, to conduct a nationwide study of prospective homebuyers’ attitudes toward the economy, home styles, product prefer- ences, energy efficiency, and green features. It also examined changing attitudes in regard to borhood is more important than the size of the house. In fact, more than 50 percent of respon- dents in the survey said they were willing to accept a smaller house “in the neighborhood I want.” This does not mean product is irrelevant, but it does mean that for many buyers the loca- tion of the home – the place – is now more important than the house itself – the product. … According to Builder, one subset of buyers that home- builders should learn more about is women. Women have always played a big role in homebuying decisions, but demographic data show that by 2010 households headed by a woman will number well over 30 million. Shyman Kannan, vice president and director of research at Robert Charles Less- er & Co. (RCLCO), says that the role of the home and the imp act of demographic changes on buyer preferences. The results are surprising and they suggest that the types of new homes that were most prevalent before the recession will not satisfy the needs of tomorrow’s buyers. One reason for shifting buyer preferences is the fact that there are so many different buyer profiles. Tomor- row’s market is made for the foreseeable future. So what do buyers want? Given that housing prices are down 30 percent from their peak – and even more in some markets – big, flashy houses are no longer priorities. Buyers are less likely to think of housing primarily as an investment and more likely to think about how the house will fit their lifestyle. What is more, for many buy- ers the character of the neigh- their surveys have found that “female respondents have a strong preference for the city and are much more likely to choose what we call ‘safe urbanism.’ ” According to Kannan, RCLCO surveys have found that while “safety is very important” to female buyers, they also “want to be able to walk to shopping and dining.” Besides safety, another fea- ture of interest to most buyer segments including women buy- ers, baby boomers, and young FOR MANY BUYERS THE CHARACTER OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE SIZE OF THE HOUSE. PERSPECTIVES ON HOUSING