01/26/2000 Agenda & Packet - Laserfiche WebLink

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III Demographic Trends/Forecasts The population within the District is forecast to increase from an estimate of 78,719 in 1996 to 85,825 in 2010. This represents a modest growth rate of approximately of(0.5%) one half percent (about 500 new residents) per year. School age population is forecast to remain stable for the next five years with minor increases and decreases among certain age segments. • The number of youth in grades K-5 will decline(-12%)between 1997-2002. • The number of youth in grades 6-8 will decline slightly(-4%) between 1997-2002. • The number of youth in grades 9-12 will increase(+8%)between 1997 and 2002. • The number of youth age 6-18 (prime youth sports participants)is forecast to remain stable between 1997 and 2002. • The number of adults ages 19 -40 (prime adult sports participants) is forecast to be stable between 1997,and 2002. • The number of adults ages 55 -75 (active seniors)will increase between 1997 and 2002 and will continue to increase for the next 25 years. Metropolitan Council Population Estimate and Forecasts 1996 2000 2005 2010 Annual Rate Arden Hills 9,678 9,700 10,150 10,600 0.6% • Mounds View 12,789 12,500 12,400 12,300 (-0.2%) New Brighton 22,584 23,500 23,750 24,000 0.4% North Oaks(621) 3,300 3,400 3,450 3,500 0.4% Roseville (621) 3,C00 3,100 3,300 3,500 1.1% Shoreview 26,118 28,500* 29,500* 30,500* 1.2% Vadnais Hgts. (621) 1.250 1.300 1,375 1.425 1.0% Total 78,719 82,000 83,925 85,825 0.6% *City of Shoreview is 95%developed and City staff feel the Met Council forecast is too high, but they have not yet prepared their own population forecast. Given the modest growth forecast and the highly developed nature of the district (less than 5% vacant developable land remains) the overall demand on athletic facilities will not be significantly effected by the modest increase in population. Most of the population growth is forecast to occur in Shoreview. The biggest population growth segments will be active seniors, who will increase demand for facilities such as indoor and outdoor walking areas and day-time gym space. The athletic facility needs should focus on meeting the current shortfall in facilities for youth and adults and on the expanding senior citizen needs. III 5