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■ ■ ■ Summary of Findings .Market Study of St. Anthony Redevelopment Area ■ ■ Introduction ■ Maxfield Research Inc. was retained by the City of St. Anthony to conduct a comprehensive market potential analysis for the redevelopment of the Apache Mall site and the Salvation Army ■ camp in St. Anthony, Minnesota. Our study includes an analysis of growth trends and demo- graphic characteristics and the impact of these trends on the housing, retail and office markets in St. Anthony. Our research also includes an analysis of current market conditions and the exist- 0 ing supply of housing, retail and office space in the market area. The market area varies for each type of use, but generally includes northeast Minneapolis, northwest St. Paul, Falcon Heights, Roseville, New Brighton, Columbia Heights, and Fridley (the draw area is largest for office and smallest for retail). Maps are included with this summary which outline the individual draw ar- eas. ■ ■ Demographic Trends and Characteristics ■ • The St. Anthony Market Area is characterized primarily by an aging population base, a ■ strong family market and higher household incomes compared to the market area as a whole. • Our review of population, household and employment growth trends in the market area re- vealed modest growth during the 1990s and a slowdown in growth projected for the 2000s. ■ However, in St. Anthony as in many first-tier communities throughout the Twin Cities, we ■ are seeing renewed interest and success with redevelopment which has enhanced growth for communities that were previously believed to be on a downward spiral. ■ • We have seen housing redevelopment spike household growth in communities such as Burnsville, Richfield, St. Louis Park and Roseville. Previous projections (based on avail- able land) indicated these communities would likely lose population. However, increasing ■ densities and redeveloping underutilized parcels has actually resulted in population and household increases for these cities and a turnaround of the projected trend. ■ • Although St. Anthony was previously projected to experience an increase of only 75 people and 50 households during the 2000s, the redevelopment of the subject properties could sig- nificantly increase these figures into the hundreds. Current market conditions support St. Anthony's ability to capture additional people and households through redevelopment. ■ • Similarly, strong economic conditions have resulted in substantial employment increases in many submarkets throughout the Twin Cities. During the 1990s, the market area added ,♦ Page 1 ■