PL PACKET 07181995 - Laserfiche WebLink

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REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS Basic assumptions underlying the employment forecasts: • Continuation of the Twin Cities increased share of national and urban growth. • No major changes in the structure of the national economy over the forecast period. • Due to current high labor force participation, there will be only modest increases in the near future. • As the baby boom cohort reaches retirement age, the TCMA and national employment growth rates will decline. • Employment tends to concentrate rather than disperse. • Employment growth in subareas of the region is not strongly correlated with population and household growth, it is, however, on the regional level. • Employment concentrations, while not necessarily stable in employment levels, continue for the long term. • The location of employment concentrations is highly related to transportation corridors, intersections and traffic levels. • Land cost, availability and local government incentives and subsidies affect employment growth at the subarea level. Employment was forecast by using a national employment projection prepared by the U.S. Department of Labor. The national projection was used to determine the Metropolitan Area employment forecast based on the historical relationship between Twin City Metropolitan Area employment and national employment. Alternative forecasts were prepared using separate methodologies and data series to establish a range within which future metro area employment is likely to fall. We assume no major changes in the structure of the national economy over the forecast period; and that labor force growth will decline when the baby boom cohort reaches retirement age beginning around the year 2010. SUBREGIONAL AND MUNICIPAL EMPLOYMENT ALLOCATION As with population and households, the-methodology does not attempt to directly forecast at the subarea level. Instead, forecasts are made for the entire region and allocated to subareas (quadrants, policy areas and cities) based on long term historical growth trends and other factors such as commercial/industrial construction activity, location of retail centers, population growth, highway improvements, and land supply. There were three steps. • First, data for the period 1970-1990 were the basis for projecting future subarea growth for the period 1990-2020. The methodology used common statistical techniques (regression analysis) to relate employment change in the Twin,Cities to forecasts of changes in the national economy.