CC PACKET 08251987 - Laserfiche WebLink

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r � p ! ASSUMPTIONS l Three major assumptions, about travel and transportation between. 1980 and • 2010 underlie the philosophy and goals discussed above. They are the following. 1 . Travel will increase significantly. A 50 percent increase in the number of vehicle-trips daily is forecast, and a 63 percent increase in the number of miles traveled daily in the region. The region's population is expected to increase by 25 percent between 1980 and 2010, and jobs by 41 percent. More of those people will be aged 16 to 64, the age group that encompasses the major travelers; and also, more people 65 and over will be driving. Trips will be somewhat longer as development . continues to spread out. And cars in the region will increase by 39 percent over 1980. 2. More congestion will occur, which implies declining accessibility. Major portions of the regional transportation network are becoming increasingly congested. From 1972 to 1984, the segments of highways in the Metropolitan Area experiencing severe congestion increased from 24 miles to 72, and another 60 miles were showing some congestion. At the same time, the number of people per vehicle has been steadily declining since 1979, the same year in which the public bus system- began losing passengers. 3. The region will increase its effort to ensure that people who don't own cars will have at least a minimal access to services. . A fairly large segment of the population is "transit dependent"--people who must rely on public transit to meet their travel needs because they are handicapped, poor, or too young or old to drive. _ The cost of publicly • subsidizing transit services for these people .will increase over the next 25 years. But since travel is a basic human need, the region and state will continue to subsidize transit services, and society as a whole will benefit. in addition, certain developments could have significant impacts on travel or transportation by the year 2010. While not all future developments can be foreseen, the impacts of the following possible changes need to be monitored. • Telecommuting, or doing one.'s work by computer at home. The key question is how many jobs could and would be done at home. • Computer-controlled cars. The private automobile will continue to dominate regional travel-to 2010, but the technology exists to develop a computerized highway system-. whereby cars are guided by means of on- board computers rather than by drivers. The application is probably years away, but increasing congestion could make it. cost-effective. A more-feasible application might be an on-board information/guidance system, which would alert drivers to accidents or slowdowns due to congestion, and. suggest alternative routes.- • Superconductivity. Recent breakthroughs could produce dramatic technological changes, such as electrically powered cars and magnetically levitated transit vehicles. • Labor shortages. When Tabor is in short supply, income tends to increase, which could result in fewer people using transit, more people owning cars. • Fuel supply. While long-term oil reserves will continue to diminish over the next 25 years, the region will not experience a significant permanent change in its fuel supply. Various forces will cause prices • to go up or down, however, which usually triggers greater or less use of public transit. 2