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06/04/90 09: 45 g 4 HMLKILHN K17F v <br /> 04-Jun-90 <br /> Pagc I of 2 <br /> CITY OF ST ANTHONY <br /> Month Valued Loss Ratc <br /> After Incurred Ultimate per SIOU <br /> Pvlicy Year Inception Loan X L D.T. Loss I Puyrull = Payroll <br /> 1985 55 44,361 1.182 52,435 1,369,977 3.83 <br /> 1986 46 5,743 1.246 7,156 1,426.637 0.50 <br /> 1987 34 2,376 1.368 3,250 1,447,721 022 <br /> 1988 19 77,690 1.607 124,94E 1,571,733 7.94 <br /> 1969 6 2,287 3.790 8,668 1,634,602 0.53 <br /> 196,356 / 7,450,670 = 2.64 <br /> Standard Deviation: 2.98 <br /> Coefficient of Variation: 111.06% <br /> 1990 1940 <br /> E.LR X Projected Payroll Expoaur Prujoctod Loan <br /> 2.635 X S1,677,500 — $44,249 <br /> There is a 68 percent probability thus lucres will be between ($5,172) and 594,191 <br /> Lots Rate at one Standard Deviation Abovo and below the MOVE -0.34 5.61 <br /> There is a 95 percent probability thut losses will he betwoen (555,754) anti 5144,172 <br /> Lou Rate at two Standard Deviation Above and t+olow the moan: •3-32 8.59 <br /> There it a 983 percent prubability that 1--ri will bo hetweett (S IO3,73S) 5194,153 <br /> Lott Rete at three Standard Deviation Above and bcivw the mean: -6.30 11.57 <br /> Propatod Hy. American (tisk Services, Inc. <br />