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October 17, 2013 Page 2 IMPLICATIONS 1. The total population is shown to increase by 800 people from the 2030 estimates made in 2008 to the 2040 projections just released. The 2010 Census indicates that there are 8,226 people living in St. Anthony Village. Using the 2040 projections there would be an increase of 3,574 people by the year 2040. This is a 43% increase in population over the next 30 years. Given the existing opportunities for development/redevelopment in the City further analysis and discussion need to occur to determine if this is reasonable. Things to consider include, but are not limited to: a. Potential for increase in household size, which would impact the total population; or b. Potential for an increase in medium -to -high density development/redevelopment that would accommodate a greater population. 2. Considering there is a projected increase in population of 3,574 over the next 30 years, the "no net increase" in households since the 2008 estimates is noteworthy. This raises a questions about where the 3,574 people (total; 800 new since 2030 estimates) will be living if 3,574 people are to locate in 1,252 households. It seems that some of the increased population could be accounted for by an increased household size, but is unlikely without an increase in the total households. Furthermore — is it feasible to accommodate an additional 1,252 households over the next 30 years to get us to the projected numbers? This would require higher density development/redevelopment, which is a policy discussion that should ; 3. Considering the employment dropped by roughly 400 people from 2000 to 2010, it seems questionable an increase by roughly 1,000 by the year 2040 given the existing conditions. This is lower than the 2008 estimates (by 1,500 people) however, which may be more reasonable. Business expansion or significant redevelopment would need to occur within the City's existing developed areas for this to be feasible. This warrants further discussion. CONSIDERATIONS Things to keep in mind include: • Forecasts prepared by the Metropolitan Council are for the year 2040. Revised forecasts for 2020 and 2030 are forthcoming; • Revisions to local forecasts will be made based on input from communities through December 1, 2013; • Revised local forecasts will be incorporated into the adoption of the Thrive MSP 2040 in the spring of 2014; • Forecasts will be "recalibrated" with new socioeconomic data prior to the release of System Statements in the fall of 2015; • Communities can appeal /discuss the local forecasts following the release of the System Statement; • Between 2015 and 2018, communities can engage the Metropolitan Council around forecasts and growth during the completion of the Comprehensive Plan Update process. NEXT STEPS The City Council should review the projections and methodology used to create them (see attached) and discuss these with City Staff. Staff will be attending an upcoming workshop with the Metropolitan Council on October 25th to learn more about the projections and their implications on the City. If the City Council would like to provide or raise concerns regarding the forecasts, written comments to the Metropolitan Council are needed by December 1, 2013.