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CC WORKSESSION 08052013
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CC WORKSESSION 08052013
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Mr. Jim Waters <br />Ouest Development. Inc. July 24 2013 <br />REGIONAL APARTMENT MARKET CONDITIONS <br />Rental Demand <br />The graphic on the following page displays data on apartment unit absorption in comparison with <br />job growth (losses) over the past several years for the Twin Cities Metro Area. Job growth was <br />robust during the 1990's, particularly in the latter part of the decade, while apartment supply <br />increases were nominal. The Twin Cities metro area added an average of 38,000 jobs per year <br />between 1995 and 2000. During that time, the regional apartment market operated at or above <br />98% occupancy. <br />However, the recession of 2001/2002 led to the loss of about 40,000 jobs in the region over a <br />two -year period. Meanwhile, the apartment market saw the metro -wide physical vacancy rate <br />spike to 7.6% by 2003, with apartment owners offering deep rent concessions in an attempt <br />retain current renters and lure others from competing properties. <br />Between 2003 and 2007, the economy improved and the region added approximately 75,000 <br />jobs. Meanwhile, we saw the absorption of nearly 6,700 market rate rental units over these four <br />years and a decline in the metro -wide physical vacancy rate to 4.2 %. <br />A serious economic recession took a major toll on all real estate sectors in 2008 and 2009, <br />including the Twin Cities apartment market. From the beginning of 2008 through year -end <br />2009, the Twin Cities economy shed more than 106,000 jobs. The regional apartment market <br />saw a spike in physical vacancy to 7.9% by the end of 2009. Negative absorption totaled nearly <br />3,500 units during 2009. (This includes only those units in apartment complexes of 10 or more <br />units, thereby understating negative absorption since we exclude smaller buildings, duplexes, and <br />single family rentals.) <br />The recent recession caused many Twin Cities renters to downsize, or move in with a roommate, <br />parents or other family members. As the economy continues to improve, many of these renters <br />are moving back into apartments. 2010 brought dramatic improvement in the Twin Cities <br />apartment market, spurred by economic improvement and modest job growth, along with a "de- <br />bundling" of Twin Cities households. A total of 21,600 jobs were added for the year, while <br />apartment absorption totaled 6,433 units. At the same time, the apartment industry benefited <br />from foreclosures, with rental properties attracting many former homeowners. Apartment <br />vacancy in the Twin Cities Metro Area declined from 7.3% to 3.8% during 2010. <br />Economic conditions continue to improve. A total of 7,100 jobs were added during 2013 Q1, <br />following growth of 43,000 jobs in 2011 and 33,000 in 2012. Total employment remains just <br />7,000 jobs short of pre- recession levels in the region. Meanwhile, metro area apartment vacancy <br />has declined to 2.8% in 2013 Ql. Absorption totaled of 724 units during 2013 Q1, following <br />2,406 units in 2011 and 1,217 units in 2012. <br />Marquette Advisors Page I I <br />
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