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CC WORKSESSION 08052013
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CC WORKSESSION 08052013
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Mr. Jim Waters <br />Ouest Development, Inc. July 24 2013 <br />Urban submarkets have led the resurgence in the Twin Cities apartment market, although the <br />recovery has been widespread, with improved demand for all rental product types, at all rent <br />levels, and in all submarkets, particularly those which provide good access to major job centers, <br />goods /services, dining/entertainment, parks /trails and urban amenities, key transportation <br />corridors and access to transit. <br />Apartment SumAy Trends <br />Apartment construction activity was very moderate throughout the 2008/2009 economic <br />recession, much more so than during the last recession of 2001/2002. The graph on the <br />preceding page shows regional annual apartment unit construction in comparison with unit <br />absorption from 1998 through 2012. Over the past 10 years in the Twin Cities region, just 7,853 <br />new market rate apartment units have been constructed, compared to total net positive absorption <br />of 13,429 units during this timeframe. Construction activity has picked -up dramatically, <br />however, with more than 5,300 market rate apartments under construction throughout the metro <br />area and another 7,000 units in the planning stages. The majority of current construction activity <br />is focused in the City of Minneapolis, in its Downtown and "Uptown" neighborhoods, where <br />approximately 4,000 units are expected to come online in 2013 and 2014. <br />Rental Rates <br />The Twin Cities average market rent was $966 in 2013 QIat the end of 2012, up 3.3% over the <br />past 12 months. Based on a supplemental survey of about 30,000 units metro -wide, we estimate <br />that "effective" rental rates (net of concessions) averaged about $957 in 2013 Q1, up 4.1% <br />compared to a year ago. Rent growth in the Twin Cities has been held down somewhat due to a <br />variety of factors, including reduced unit turnover activity due to sustained low vacancy (sub - <br />3.0% for eight consecutive quarters), and a strong local ownership presence which has <br />historically been very conservative with rent increases. We note that new apartment product has <br />been very well received to date and is commanding a considerable rent premium over existing <br />product. <br />The map on the following page shows average market rental rates and vacancy by submarket as <br />of 2013 Q1. In general, urban and close -in suburban markets continue to outperform second and <br />third -ring suburban markets. However, conditions have improved in all submarkets, as rental <br />housing demand remains strong due to demographic and economic trends, as well as social and <br />lifestyle trends which are favorable to renting. Vacancy in the North Central Suburban market, <br />within which the subject property is located, was 2.3 %, with an average market rent of $871 for <br />2013 Q1. <br />Marquette Advisors Page 15 <br />
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