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Home My WebLink AboutURBAN LAND INSTITUTE WORKSHOP 03182013Urban land InsfifWe Minnesota Navigating the New Normal A ULI Minnesota (ULI MN) public official education workshop City of St. Anthony Village Monday, March 18, 2013 6:30 -8:30 P.M. St. Anthony Village City Hall Welcome and Introductions Overview of the New Normal & Community Change Data — Gordon Hughes & Cathy Bennett, ULI MN Panel Discussion Rusty Fifield, Northland Securities Mark Koegler, Hoisington Koegler Group Kit Richardson, Schafer Richardson Keith Ulstad, United Properties Panelist Q & A — Panelists and Workshop Participants Wrap -Up f� c Navi atin the NeNormal About ULI MN 3/11/2013 1 ULI Minnesota actively of Mayors engages public and private sector leaders to foster Minneapolis, Saint Paul collaboration, share Ufa knowledge and join in meaningful strategic action municipalities, in the to create thriving, -i sustainable communities. 3/11/2013 1 Regional Council of Mayors � - -- Minneapolis, Saint Paul and 48 other municipalities, in the -i developed and developing suburbs, are Y represented in RCM. Collaborative, non - �'JF -T partisan, solution- oriented 3/11/2013 1 Our Strategic Issue Areas AWL �t �� _ Normal "These things usually creep along at the speed of a glacier. Not so with aging. In demographic terms, this is a tsunami. It doesn't get much bigger than this...... . ]M1Omof 6111ospy, MN SbM1CemagnpFei Projected Minnesota population ages 65+ ,..aamp ,..aw mob, m.ara apw amp w,a amp was was wx 3/11/2013 2 0..w.. ¢r tot.... • Population charactensocs are changing Mv, mir snglrs. morelnmgenR. fmrvlrwnAWa WrcAWm. Pttttem YFAUr/.ms nutlr ae AeXNL pm, gvgFpFMU3. G¢nra mann3ra331 am 39 %aCarn rwuwW]¢rm 75million '$75000 $t,6 Pill 1 Gen Y represents the greatest magnitude and spending power _.. .,..: attr.:.rrn.FOS SOxmroe.v¢wwFA�r 3/11/2013 191 Growth in # - Older Households 6too" 131% net Increase s00,o00 -: +98.000 auu,om 300,000 -. e:0z0 zoo.000 30o,o0u - ' undn zs 2s 1. 3o 351. sa 55 to 74 ]s+ • 1,112,879 - Occupied Housing Units (2011) in 7 -Co. Area • ♦65, 083 — Net Household Change (2004-2011) 0..w.. ¢r tot.... • Population charactensocs are changing Mv, mir snglrs. morelnmgenR. fmrvlrwnAWa WrcAWm. Pttttem YFAUr/.ms nutlr ae AeXNL pm, gvgFpFMU3. G¢nra mann3ra331 am 39 %aCarn rwuwW]¢rm 75million '$75000 $t,6 Pill 1 Gen Y represents the greatest magnitude and spending power _.. .,..: attr.:.rrn.FOS SOxmroe.v¢wwFA�r 3/11/2013 191 Where is the younger age cohort living? Households Usage Under Age 35 1011 bounty metro total ftwiff RTnUlapl aw nedsaa aaau aex 11% 1.3% SA% p"% l,p% o Rymses �br. c ebub eatlep �S wrv�inm 4l� Baby Boomers seeking active lifestyles, more interaction mp„wanaw„w.vw W�u + -ss ereuea soon ua xoeb, a.e - a�Y T�NIMd NawM eda I ry6MtMSn1 Gnvnt NTdwY rommmm�ipinxo�x � Mpry maabxNb Napa, vX, sq mibMmnl Gen Y seeks diversity, walk aNdy, and proximity to Jobs bbaT a�.b uNa,.,,wT. ors ,.,aa„ oa ., aww e.M�Nry 3/11/2013 0 W 1 2 0 V T� uMiweieLb area - a�Y T�NIMd NawM eda I ry6MtMSn1 Gnvnt NTdwY rommmm�ipinxo�x � Mpry maabxNb Napa, vX, sq mibMmnl Gen Y seeks diversity, walk aNdy, and proximity to Jobs bbaT a�.b uNa,.,,wT. ors ,.,aa„ oa ., aww e.M�Nry 3/11/2013 0 Change in Housing Choice In a national survey, 6 out of 10 prospective homebuyers chose a higher - density, mined use community. P P I P P 4 P O P d f Change in Housing Choice Pallin0 Nomeownershlp Rates Re9ect a Sharp Turnarountl In owner amd Henter K..x.h.ld .rowN Housing Supply /Demand Mismatch An.6 d 41914 25,715 1. Townhome 5 }93 16,nl (10,796) smalhr lM(n /6°a,) 10.717 41,366 (36,651) Iar6erlol(A/6 ac) "Au 27,151 37.750 Tabl 111 111905 a6wiY f¢w FAODUnb NavugM,evdnnNUney.'SUxry' butl en4nvrtn MwFe9rvry�mrol. q..eiWMU4w.navn v4xN ymdunl�mslu WN..ro�� m• 3/11/2013 5 3/11/2013 Built Environment Is a Direct Reflection of the Underlying Economy '• rhori In HO..hold Income vs. lost of Using 1000- 1001 costs Rose 6 x Fpsferthan Inrome & 3r Fasfn fhon HOUSISq a H • • a a U.S. Household Spending: Walkable, Average & Drivable Waltrbleurban gaerage US Memble5ub -urban 000 r fr00 mortgage carrying capacity The Problem: Capital Market Typical Commercial Loan Breakout rim $t,00�en $so $so $70 $60 eE4uxr $s0 • oan $n0 34% $30 $to $o 2007 2009 TODAY —XNUrn on EQUIry Market View of MSP Region Emerging Trends 2011 Price Waterhouse Coopers & ULI, Nov. 2010 875 Top Investors & Developers Favor Infill over Fringe TOD & Green Building Mixed -Use 24 -hour markets Buy Land Less Retail Workforce Accessibility is Key Development will be where young workers want to be Infrastructure Investment in light rail & public amenities is positive MSP— diversified economy Potential Impacts to Cities • Shifts in demand for local goods /services • Shrinking local tax bases / school impact ply - Job markets impacts & transportation systems Demand for New Housing Types•,.., -y 3/11/2013 7 St. Anthony Community Change Household Distribution St k1h., M.OW4s by Ke w0 11% ew .yess »0011 wn M N R•hAl 11% �p ex yxs�nHOr -i 55: Iw Mo uMVryROXI 120 -19% a XG Hm 1O 2.7 ELBA 1CT. roID Im_ Trial HO. d0 Ch n., 04 -10 4% St. Anthony Resident Diversity Percent People of Color (2010 Census) Fridley i Arden Hills kilfto (-]L�m 5% N Brighton mss+. mo9w P � u mbia fights Q IOfi N 199 °e M mw wza.m to . 1 -1 �99r 1�99.9w St. Anttiony �.9r amore I Roseville ullerdele FIlcon Heights 3/11/2013 0 What Type of Homes do St. Anthony Residents Live in? Iron omOaBOn Own ®M All HH /YOUnB HH 48% 24% ))w 18% 14% 32% 62% met Side by Side Breakdown by Housing Type St. Anthony Residents - All and Younger HH's 4-�-29%6 2% 2% a.F'wLiis'. • OerAea/iiielea All HOpinua,aft �DWMd MF Houeehdde Abe 35 •Pen)al Mf rawm App .. 3/11/2013 Where did St. Anthony Residents Move? (2004 -n) City % 925 residents moved Iee�»'ee�mw -soul St. Anthony 16% Minneapolis 13% New Brighton 9% Columbia Heights, St. Paul 5-6% each Roseville, Shoreview, Blaine 4-3% each St. Anthony Single Family Home Tax Values All Households -2011 All I I _f <$200,000 $200,000 - $250,000 - >$300,000 $249,000 $299,000 St. Anthony Single Family Home Tax Values Under age 35 - 2011 n l -. <$200,000 $200,000 - $250,000 - >$300,000 $249,000 $299,000 3/11/2013 W Median Home Sale Price Compared to Area Median Income (2012) $ESO,000 cone¢ o eata� —ra,t am $119,000 w.nar l+cnx41: - $ECOACO wage SfiS.iCOW $169,110 seso,aao #�� m.mi. m. amea.mr w.,.�.uea �.ranekra We51: uasl: ,r w s> saes o y S100 ep sooh,000 $n,ew 5so,aao $ ft" MAN MAN UNAN St. Anthony — Labor Force /Resident Workers • a St. Anthony — Change in Primary Jobs 240 jobs gamed 2,868 21 6 010 2,622 Z 21575 2,638 2,545 3/11/2013 11 City of St. Anthony 2010 - Top S Major Industry Sectors — %share %change (05 -10) Health Care and Social Assist. 20% 5% Manufacturing 11% -35% Retail Trade 10.7% 69% Accommodation & Food Service 10.5% 340% Wholesale Trade 9.5% -27% Where St. Anthony Employees Come From & Residents Work - 2010 rM % 21868 jobs II.An pnNan, rasa SLAn ]% Sr. Paul, New Bd,htan e%eaN i..LO�VOaI Isrso ^Pslool.ants. [IrNY,alalna,ndar.- sapld. 3%eaah 3,658 residents working Minneapolis Sax _ SL Paul Lox •i�' PoseaHle,sLMther, S %ea[M1 8laomin8[on,Fdd Ie Edina 3%eadl ,—.dna Golden Valle, Plynnouh, St. Louis Paris SM1Urcview axeuh St. Anthony working residents Age Distribution: (2010) Under Age 30 24% 30-54 54% Over 54 22% 100% St. Anthony working resident wages Under30 <$1251 per mo 17% 35% $1,251 - $3,333 per mo 31% 36% > $3,333 per mo is 291A 100% 100% 3/11/2013 12 Impact of the New Normal How will St. Anthony Respond? Changing demographics and housing preferences will impact the supply and demand for new housing choices. Future residents will likely desire walkability, access to services closer to home and less time driving. Difficulty in accessing private capital increases the complexity of (re)development. i Industry Leader Panel Discussion 3/11/2013 i9l