HomeMy WebLinkAbout2014.03.17 CC PowerPoint Met Council ForcastsMet Council
Preliminary Forecasts Update
Thrive MSP 2040
Population, Households, &
Employment
Huty Oo
Thrive MSP 2040
Thrive MSP 2040 is the Met Council's long-range
plan for the seven county metro region.
It serves as the foundation of the Met Council's
system plans and policies as we move towards the
upcoming 2040 Comprehensive Plan.
During this process the Met Council develops
preliminary forecast for each city in the seven county
area.
population, households, and employment numbers in
10 year increments.
The forecasts are developed behind analysis of the
real estate market/market demand, infrastructure 1-1
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resources, and projections on growth in the ares!
Council's Previous Comments
The preliminary forecasts for 2040 are
significantly lower that what was forecasted for
2030
Pending and future residential developments
Washington County HRA —Maxfield housing
study
They evaluated each city in Washington County.
Their projections for Hugo in 2030 are about to the
same as the Metropolitan Council's projections for
2040
Requested to keep the projections from
the 2030 Comp Plan *11Hu`g°
What the Met Council heard...
Some suburban edge
and emerging
suburban edge
communities felt
forecasts were too
low
Many developed
communities and
rural townships said
forecasts were too
high
City of
iv,Hugo
What the Met Council revised...
Corrected data on residential land consumption
rates
Revised development cost estimates to better
reflect land costs, higher costs of redevelopment
Improved tracking of developed and available
land supplies
Stricter definition of cities' maximum capacities
Considered recent platting activity to identify
current growth areas
Region -levels forecasts are slightly lower overall
Citgo
14H
Distribution of Household Growth
RDF Forecasts, 2000-2030
5§9�`
Draft Local Forecasts, 2010-2040
■ Central Cities
■ Developed
Suburbs
Developing
Suburbs
■ Rural Area
City of
iv,Hugo
Preliminary Forecasts
■ Revised February 19, 2014
Population
2030 Comp Plan 40,000
2040 Previous Forecast (09/13) 23,200
2040 New Forecasts (02/14) 31,300
Households
15,600
10,300
Employment
4,500
3,500
2,780
Process/Next Steps
Public comments are welcome on draft
forecasts through April 28, 2014
Final revisions to forecasts
Revised forecasts will be adopted with the
Thrive MSP 2040 in May 2014
Next Updates:
Summer/Fall 2015 (with system statements)
Revisions with the Comprehensive Plan
update
Citgo
IsiH
Conclusion
The preliminary forecasts are important
They guide what is put in the Met Council systems
statement for Hugo.
The system statements are what the City uses
to develop the Comp Plan.
This is the time to provide comments on the
numbers to the Met Council
April 28, 2014
The Met Council has committed to Hugo the growth
forecasts from our 2030 Comp Plan
Thrive MSP 2040
City of
Comprehensive Development Guide
IsiHugo
Recommendation
Staff's opinion remains the same from the
previous comment letter.
Planning Commission Comments
The Met Council is looking for comments in
regards to the projection numbers being too
high, too low, or just right.
Staff recommend the City Council provide
comments to staff