07-14-25 - City Council Agenda - Laserfiche WebLink

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Mr. Michael Grochala June 3, 2025 Page 2 For the general project location, trends in precipitation, temperature, flood risk, and cooling degree days have been analyzed and described below. Some of the climate projections summarized below use Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), which are greenhouse gas concentration scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.' Precipitation According to the Minnesota Climate Explorer, the historic average precipitation level in Anoka County between 2000 and 2024 was 31.04 inches with the lowest range in 2021 (21.94 inches) and the highest average in 2002 (41.01 inches).2 Average annual precipitation in Anoka County from 2040-2059 is projected to be 32.79 inches under RCP 4.5. From 2080-2099, average annual precipitation is projected to be 33.62 inches under RCP 4.5 and 35.87 inches under RCP 8.5. Temperature According to the Minnesota Climate Explorer, the historic average temperature in Anoka County between 2000 and 2024 was approximately 45.14°F with the lowest average in 2014 (40.93°F)and the highest average in 2012 (48.39°F). The average annual temperature in Anoka County is projected to increase to 48.42°F from 2040 to 2059 under RCP 4.5 (intermediate emissions pathway). In 2080-2099, average annual temperature is projected to further increase to 50.84°F and 54.58°F under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 (high emissions pathway), respectively. Urban Heat Island Surfaces and structures such as roads, parking lots, and buildings absorb and re-emit more heat from the sun than natural landscapes. This can significantly raise air temperature and overall extreme heat vulnerability in urban areas where there are dense concentrations of these surfaces. This is referred to as urban heat island effect. According to the Metropolitan Council's Extreme Heat Map Tool, the AUAR study area is located in an area of medium heat vulnerability in the less developed areas and high heat vulnerability in areas with more development.3 Flood Risk Climate change can exacerbate the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events and associated flooding in some locations. According to the FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer, a tool that identifies current effective flood hazard data, the majority of the study area has a RCP 4.5 is an intermediate scenario in which emissions decline after peaking around 2040,and RCP 8.5 is a worst-case scenario in which emissions continue to rise through the 21st century.Climate Explorer Metadata available at: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/climate-explorer-metadata.htm1 2 Available at: https://arcgis.dnr.state.mn.us/climateexplorer/main/historical 'Available at: https://metrocouncii.org/Communities/Planning/Local-Planning-Assistance/CVA/Tools-Resources.aspx "M:\027919-000\Admin\Docs\Climate\MEMO Climate 2025-02-24.docx" Page 108 of 240