08-04-25 - City Council Work Session Agenda

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7. Climate Adaptation and Resilience a. Describe the climate trends in the general location of the project (see guidance: Climate Adaptation and Resilience) and how climate change is anticipated to affect that location during the life of the project. Trends in temperature, precipitation, flood risk, and cooling degree days are described below for the general project location. Some of these climate predictions use specific scenarios called SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) or RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SSP 245 and RCP 4.5 are intermediate scenarios where emissions peak around 2040 and then decrease. SSP 370 and RCP 8.5 are high -emissions scenarios where emissions continue to rise through the century.' In an intermediate scenario, greenhouse gas emissions stabilize, whereas in a high emissions scenario, they continue to increase significantly.2 Temperature According to the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), the historical average temperature in Anoka County between 2004 and 2024 was approximately 45.15°F, with the lowest average in 2014 (40.5°F) and the highest average in 2024 (48.8°F), as shown in Figure 5.3According to the Minnesota Climate Mapping and Analysis Tool, the annual daily average temperature in the study area is projected to increase to 49.2°F from 2040 to 2059 under an intermediate emissions pathway (SSP 245),In 2080-2099, the annual daily average temperature is projected to further increase to 52.2°F and 54.4°F under an intermediate (SSP 245) and high emissions pathway (SSP 370), respectively.4 Figure 5: NCEI County Time Series - Average Temperature Trends for Anoka County Anoka County, Minnesota Average Temperature April -March 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2022 2024 Urban Heat Island Surfaces and structures such as roads, parking lots, and buildings absorb and re -emit more heat from the sun than natural landscapes. This can significantly raise air temperature and 1 Climate Explorer Metadata. Available at.https://climate.umn.edu/dnrs-climate-explorer-tool-cmipS 2 Climate Explorer Metadata. Available at https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/climate-explorer-metadata.htm1. 3 National Centers for Environmental Information, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. County Time Series. Available at: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/county/time-series. 4 Minnesota CHMAT. University of Minnesota. Available at https://app.climate.umn.edu/?output type=modelVal&scenario=ssp370 2080- 2099&model=ensemble&variable=tmax-degF&time frame=yearly&aoi=none#intro pane Lino Lakes Main Street - AUAR 11 July 2025 Page 19 of 617