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DRAFT Market Analysis Lino Lakes Comprehensive Plan Update September 2006 Page 12 and most active segments of the market. Depending on appropriate densities and accessibility of individual developments to goods and services, Lino Lakes certainly has the potential to absorb a portion of this growth. As of 2006, the Metropolitan Council forecasts that Lino Lakes will grow by approximately 2,200 households between 2000 and 2010, by 1,500 households between 2010 and 2020, and by another 1,500 households between 2020 and 2030. These figures appear to be influenced by construction limits more than market demand. Given the regional housing trends presented in the previous section, the growth forecasts by the Metropolitan Council appear somewhat low, because pressure to develop at the contiguous edge of the metro area will increase in the near future as housing demand will be heavily influenced by the needs of older adults. Thus, some of the development that would have been expected to leap -frog past Lino Lakes and neighboring communities into southern Isanti and Chisago Counties over the next 25 years is likely to be captured at the contiguous edge, provided land is made available for development at densities that are financially feasible to most private developers. Furthermore, Lino Lakes clearly has enough land to accommodate a faster rate of household growth. For example, if Lino Lakes continued to develop housing units at its current rate (150 units per year) and density (1.7 units per acre), it would take about 57 years to exhaust the roughly 5,000 acres of undeveloped land available for development. After 57 years, the metro area is expected to at least double its number of households. This would push the contiguous edge of the metro area far beyond the corporate limits of Lino Lakes. Because the price of land often increases as surrounding communities become fully built -out, pressure to develop at higher densities will likely increase in Lino Lakes. To some extent this has already begun to occur in Lino Lakes with the introduction of for -sale multifamily product targeted to younger, entry-level buyers and, more importantly, older buyers looking to downsize their housing and reduce maintenance. Therefore, if market forces are placing pressure on Lino Lakes to develop at a rate and density higher than what has been historically experienced, how much future residential development can Lino Lakes absorb? Over the last several decades, consider the proportion of household growth in the 16- county metro area that has occurred in the northeast quadrant, and then consider the proportion of the northeast metro's growth that has occurred in Lino Lakes. The following table helps illustrate this relationship. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1