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DRAFT Market Analysis
<br />Lino Lakes Comprehensive Plan Update
<br />September 2006
<br />Page 13
<br />Net Increase in Number of Households I
<br />1960s
<br />1970s
<br />1980s
<br />1990s
<br />Estimate
<br />2000 -2005
<br />Lino Lakes 274 576 1,215 2,254 872
<br />Northeast Metro 28,668 38,219 38,062 31,789 20,906
<br />16- County Metro Area 133,366 179,890 178,688 183,969 108,380
<br />Lino Lakes as a Pct. of NE Metro
<br />1.0% 1.5% 3.2% 7.1% 4.2%
<br />NE Metro as a Pct. of 16 -County Meta 21.5% 21.2% 21.3% 17.3% 19.3%
<br />Note: Northeast Metro consists of suburban Ramsey County, eastern Anoka County, northern
<br />Washington County, Isanti County, Chisago County, and Polk County in Wisconsin.
<br />Sources: U.S. Census; Metropolitan Council; Minnesota State Demographer; Wisconsin State
<br />Demographer
<br />The table indicates that the northeast metro consistently captured about 21% of the overall
<br />household growth from 1960 to 1990. Its proportion dropped to 17% during the 1990s, but then
<br />rebounded to 19% in the first part of the current decade.
<br />Meanwhile, Lino Lakes' proportion of northeast metro growth has increased each decade from 1960
<br />to 2000, largely because of transportation improvements and outward growth of the contiguous
<br />edge of the metropolitan area.
<br />Although Lino Lakes may continue to place constraints on the amount of development, it is
<br />conceivable that it could capture upwards of 10% of the forecasted growth in the northeast metro
<br />given its supply of undeveloped land and pressure from market forces.
<br />Forecasted growth for the northeast metro is projected to be roughly 37,000 households in the
<br />2000s, 25,000 households in the 2010s, and 27,000 households in the 2020s. At a capture rate of
<br />10 %, Lino Lakes could expect household growth of 3,700 households in the 2000s, 2,500
<br />households in the 2010s, and 2,700 households in the 2020s.
<br />However, we believe it is important to adjust these figures somewhat. First, development in Lino
<br />Lakes during the first five years of the decade has been slower than projected. Thus, we revise our
<br />projected figures downward to account for this and, therefore, forecast a household growth of
<br />between 2,200 and 2,600 households between 2000 and 2010 instead of 3,700 households.
<br />We also revise the figures for the 2010s. The forecasted household growth for the northeast metro
<br />is only 25,000 households or 13% of all metro area growth during this period. This is a significant
<br />and unexplained drop from previous decades, especially given that the projected proportion for the
<br />2020s increases back up to 19 %. Therefore, keeping in line with known development trends, we
<br />increased the proportion of household growth that is projected to occur in the northeast metro
<br />during the 2010s from 13% to 17 %. This results in a projected growth of 31,200 households instead
<br />of 25,000 households. Thus, after applying a 10% capture rate for Lino Lakes, we forecast that Lino
<br />Lakes will increase by 3,000 to 3,500 households during the 2010s.
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