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DRAFT Market Analysis
<br />Lino Lakes Comprehensive Plan Update
<br />September 2006
<br />Page 17
<br />Square Footage
<br />Occupied Office and Industrial Space in the Twin Cities
<br />1991 -2005
<br />70,000,000 -
<br />60,000,000
<br />50,000,000 -
<br />40,000,000 -
<br />30,000,000 -
<br />20,000,000 -
<br />10,000,000 -
<br />0
<br />Abso rption '91 =05
<br />Total Annual
<br />Office/Ware 39,407,275 2,814,805
<br />Office 15,895,353 1,135,382
<br />Bulk 7,795,656 556,833
<br />Office /Show 4.051.184 289.370
<br />67,149,468 4,796,391
<br />Office Space
<br />56,073,802
<br />Office/Warehouse
<br />Office /Showroom
<br />Bulk Warehouse
<br />49,678,361
<br />15,637,141
<br />13,760,787
<br />1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
<br />Office - warehouse space, which has been historically indicative of the manufacturing sector, grew by
<br />40 million occupied square feet between 1991 and 2005 (13.0% annually), followed by office space,
<br />which grew by 16 million occupied square feet (2.4% annually). The overall strong growth in office -
<br />warehouse space with its intermittent peaks and valleys is more reflective of a changing office
<br />market than growth in the manufacturing sector. As the most accessible sites become cost
<br />prohibitive for many businesses with office workers, office - warehouse properties in traditionally
<br />industrial locations have become increasingly popular.
<br />Overall, the strong historical expansion in occupied multi- tenant office and industrial space in the
<br />Twin Cities suggests that Lino Lakes can likely absorb a variety of space types, assuming that the
<br />economy continues to expand. The mix of building types on the site will depend on the particular
<br />parts of the economy that are expanding at the time individual sites are being developed (e.g. if
<br />growth in the healthcare sector is strong, medical office demand will be strong).
<br />Employment Growth by Sector 2002 -2012
<br />The chart below presents predictions from the Minnesota Department of Economic Development
<br />(DEED) about the growth of the Twin Cities economy by industrial sector. The chart shows very
<br />strong expansion in several services sectors (61% of new jobs over 10 years in education /health,
<br />professional /business services, and hospitality), followed by retail trade (9% of new jobs),
<br />transportation /communications /utilities (8 %), and finance /insurance /real estate (6 %). Although
<br />significant commercial /industrial development in Lino Lakes will not occur until after 2012 since
<br />closer in sites like TCAAP in Arden Hills will capture most growth in the short -term, the projections
<br />highlight that commercial development in the Twin Cities region in the coming decades will likely
<br />focus on several service sectors because they will be the major drivers of employment growth.
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