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DRAFT Market Analysis Lino Lakes Comprehensive Plan Update September 2006 Page 20 Total Jobs 25,000 - 20,000 15,000 13,000 5,000 0 Job Growth Lino Lakes and Neighbors 2000 -2030 Source: M et Council A A Blaine Forest Lake Lino Lakes A Hugo 2000 2013 2020 2030 PROJECTED DEMAND FOR COMMERCIAL/ INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT Between 1995 and 2005, which encompasses a period of both rapid employment growth and nominal employment growth, the annual average increase in the number of jobs was approximately 17,300 in the 7- County Twin Cities metro area, according to the Minnesota Department of Economic Development. It is difficult to directly translate job growth to the construction of new office and industrial properties since many jobs are accommodated within existing space. Nonetheless, between 2002 and 2004, the Metropolitan Council tracked the activity of non- residential construction in the 7- County Metro Area and discovered that during the three -year period, the average amount of new office and industrial space that was built per year was 4.4 million square feet. Thus, for every new job added to the local economy, roughly 250 square feet of new office and industrial space was added to meet the increased number of workers. Using the ratio of one new job equals 250 new square feet of office and industrial space, a basis for estimating the amount of square footage demanded in Lino Lakes through 2030 can be estimated according to projected job growth. Previously, a chart presented the projected growth in the number of jobs in Lino Lakes and its growing neighbors through 2030. According to the Met Council, Lino Lakes is projected to remain mostly a bedroom community with only nominal job growth of 500 jobs in the 2000s, 350 jobs in the 2010s, and 250 jobs in the 2030s. Although redeveloping districts to the south of Lino Lakes on the TCAAP site in Arden Hills and the Twin Lakes development in Roseville will undoubtedly siphon a considerable amount of commercial and industrial growth in the coming years, recent experience of Blaine and White Bear Lake /White Bear Township suggest that Lino Lakes could be poised for considerable more employment growth. During the 1990s, much of the available for office and industrial development had been largely exhausted in the inner ring of suburbs to the south of Lino Lakes. As a result commercial 1 1