02/12/2007 Council Packet - Laserfiche WebLink

Home Search

DRAFT Market Analysis Lino Lakes Comprehensive Plan Update September 2006 Page 21 development had begun to move northward along the major transportation routes of the northern suburbs (Interstates 35W and 35E). Blaine and White Bear Lake /White Bear Township were the respective recipients of the growth of commercial development along these corridors. During the 1990s, Blaine captured 18% of the job growth in Anoka County, while White Bear Lake /White Bear Township captured nearly 16% of the job growth in the suburban portion of Ramsey County. As the next community north of the developing edge of both Interstates 35W and 35E, it is likely Lino Lakes will eventually captured a significant portion of the projected growth for the northern metro of the Twin Cities in the coming years. During the remainder of the 2000s, it is forecasted that Lino Lakes could capture 2.5% of the projected job growth of Anoka and Suburban Ramsey Counties. This translates to 1,250 jobs. During the 2010s, the proportion of the forecasted growth capturable by Lino Lakes will increase to 7% or 2,200 jobs. During the 2020s, the proportion will increase yet again to 12% or 3,000 jobs. Returning back to the ratio of 1 new job represents 250 square feet of additional office and industrial space, this then factors the following rough estimates for the amount of square feet by decade for Lino Lakes: 2000 -2010: 1,200 new jobs and 300,000 square feet of office and industrial space 2010 -2020: 2,200 new jobs and 550,000 square feet of space 2020 -2030: 3,000 new jobs and 750,000 square feet of space PROJECTED RETAIL DEMAND Based on non - residential building permit from 2002 to 2004 compiled by the Metropolitan Council, the 7- County Twin Cities Metro Area has absorbed approximately 11.1 million square feet of retail space. This translates to an annual average of about 3.7 million square feet. Demand for retail space is strongly correlated with household growth, which drive consumer spending. Therefore, much of the forecasted demand for retail in Lino Lakes will be related to overall household growth. Although certain forms of retail, such as regional shopping centers, can draw customers from a very large trade area, the majority of retail space is geared toward neighborhood residents who make frequent trips to regular stores within a convenient distance of their residence. Based on estimated household growth from 2002 to 2004, which averaged 15,200 new households per year, the amount of new retail needed for every new household is approximately 250 square feet. Thus, as Lino Lakes' household base grows so will its need for additional retail space. Not every new household added in Lino Lakes will directly translate to 250 new square feet of retail space. Some new residents will travel outside of Lino Lakes to nearby retail destinations for their needs. In addition, it is projected that much of the future household growth in Lino Lakes will be dominated by older households seeking to downsize their living space. Such households often consume far less than younger households because they no longer have children and already have many household items in place from previous homes. Taking these limiting factors into consideration, it is more