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• <br />• <br />Discussion <br />Despite substantial chick loss in 2005, cameras failed to directly show raccoon <br />predation. Evidence on the ground and indirect video evidence suggest that raccoons did <br />manage to kill at least a few chicks; which in a colony of 30 nests is still a sizeable <br />percentage. Chick remains found on the ground were clearly eaten by raccoons but may have <br />been scavenged once a chick fell from the nest. <br />Video evidence from the 2004 nesting season suggested that once raccoons identified <br />a vulnerable tree, they would methodically return until all nests in the tree had been raided <br />resulting in the loss of all chicks. Usually, these raids would occur in rapid succession. <br />During the 2005 season, this pattern of loss was seen in some trees but not in others. Though <br />the relative lack of raccoon activity shown on video suggested that the flashing may have <br />been marginally effective, high rates of nest failure still occurred in trees flashed with sheet <br />metal. Aside from the relatively poor quality of video shots available over the 2005 season, <br />it is also plausible that other causes of chick mortality played a more important role in 2005. <br />Avian predators may have had a proportionately greater impact during the 2005 <br />season. Great Horned Owls, a known predator of Great Blue Herons, were present and active <br />at the Peltier Island colony in 2005. American Crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos), also well <br />documented predators, particularly of eggs, were common in the area. The relative <br />importance of owls and crows upon heron mortality is not currently known. Also noteworthy <br />is the presence of Bald Eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) in the area. Though in Minnesota <br />there are no documented cases of eagles preying upon herons, there is ample literature on this <br />phenomenon occurring in the Pacific Northwest. Obviously, metal flashed tree trunks would <br />not impact the activities of these predators. <br />Other important factors include human disturbance and random chance. As the <br />colony size shrinks, the relative importance of random chance (stochastic events) becomes <br />greater. Thunderstorms, siblicidal aggression, and accidents are all examples. This is also <br />true with human disturbance due to the proportionately larger "footprint" caused by their <br />presence. <br />