10/02/2006 Council Packet - Laserfiche WebLink

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3.0 Traffic Forecasts To effectively address the traffic questions presented at the beginning of this report, traffic forecasts were completed for 2011. It is standard practice to analyze traffic conditions for the year after full completion of the proposed development. Specifically, AM and PM peak hour traffic volumes were developed for the three subject intersections, as well as for the proposed access points to CSAH 14 and Pine Street. Analysis of each location includes the following three scenarios: • 2006 Existing • 2011 No -Build • 2011 Build The following methodology was used to develop traffic volumes for the above three scenarios: • 2006 Existing. Peak hour traffic volumes for this scenario were established based on AM and PM peak period traffic counts completed at the three subject intersections on a typical weekday. • 2011 No- Build. To account for natural background traffic growth, existing volumes at the subject intersections were increased at a rate of 5.0 percent per year. This growth factor was established based on review of historic traffic volume maps and information published in the TH 242 /CSAH 14 Access Management Study (May 1999). Traffic volumes generated by other area developments that include a trips through the subject intersections are expected to be accounted for in this conservative growth rate. • 2011 Build. Volumes due to the proposed Nature's Refuge residential development were added to the 2011 No -Build volumes to establish 2011 Build volumes. The approach and the various steps involved in establishing development volumes are described next: • Trip Generation. Trip generation estimates for the 278 single - family detached houses were developed based on data presented in the Institute of Transportation Engineers Trip Generation, Seventh Edition. Trip generation estimates for the Nature's Refuge development are shown in the Table 1.