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roughly 5,000 acres of undeveloped land available for development. After 57 years, the metro
<br />area is expected to at least double its number of households. This would push the contiguous
<br />edge of the metro area far beyond the corporate limits of Lino Lakes. Because the price of land
<br />often increases as surrounding communities become fully built -out, pressure to develop at higher
<br />densities will likely increase in Lino Lakes. To some extent this has already begun to occur in
<br />Lino Lakes with the introduction of for -sale multifamily product targeted to younger, entry-level
<br />buyers and older buyers looking to downsize their housing and reduce maintenance.
<br />Therefore, if market forces are placing pressure on Lino Lakes to develop at a rate and density
<br />higher than what has been historically experienced, how much future residential development
<br />can Lino Lakes absorb?
<br />Over the last several decades, consider the proportion of household growth in the 16 -county
<br />metro area that has occurred in the northeast quadrant, and then consider the proportion of the
<br />northeast metro's growth that has occurred in Lino Lakes. Table 4 -2 helps illustrate this
<br />relationship.
<br />Table 4 -2
<br />Household Growth
<br />Note: Northeast Metro consists of suburban Ramsey County, eastern Anoka County, northern
<br />Washington County, Isanti County, Chisago County, and Polk County in Wisconsin.
<br />Sources: U.S. Census; Metropolitan Council; Minnesota State Demographer; Wisconsin State
<br />Demographer
<br />Table 4 -2 indicates that the northeast metro consistently captured about 21 percent of the
<br />overall household growth from 1960 to 1990. Its proportion dropped to 17 percent during the
<br />1990s, but then rebounded to 19 percent in the first part of the current decade.
<br />Meanwhile, Lino Lakes' proportion of northeast metro growth has increased each decade from
<br />1960 to 2000, largely because of transportation improvements and outward growth of the
<br />contiguous edge of the metropolitan area.
<br />Although Lino Lakes may continue to place constraints on the amount of development, it is
<br />conceivable that it could capture upwards of 10 percent of the forecasted growth in the northeast
<br />metro given its supply of undeveloped land and pressure from market forces.
<br />Forecasted growth for the northeast metro is projected to be roughly 37,000 households in the
<br />2000s, 25,000 households in the 2010s, and 27,000 households in the 2020s. At a capture rate
<br />of 10 percent, Lino Lakes could potentially expect household growth of 3,700 households in the
<br />2000s, 2,500 households in the 2010s, and 2,700 households in the 2020s.
<br />4 -8
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<br />Net Increase in Number of
<br />Households
<br />Estimate
<br />2000 -
<br />2005
<br />1960s
<br />1970s
<br />1980s
<br />1990s
<br />Lino Lakes
<br />274
<br />576
<br />1,215
<br />2,254
<br />872
<br />Northeast Metro
<br />28,668
<br />38,219
<br />38,062
<br />31,789
<br />20,906
<br />16 -County Metro Area
<br />133,366
<br />179,890
<br />178,688
<br />183,969
<br />108,380
<br />Lino Lakes as a Pct. of NE Metro
<br />1.0%
<br />1.5%
<br />3.2%
<br />7.1%
<br />4.2%
<br />NE Metro as a Pct. of 16- County
<br />Metro
<br />21.5%
<br />21.2%
<br />21.3%
<br />17.3%
<br />19.3%
<br />Note: Northeast Metro consists of suburban Ramsey County, eastern Anoka County, northern
<br />Washington County, Isanti County, Chisago County, and Polk County in Wisconsin.
<br />Sources: U.S. Census; Metropolitan Council; Minnesota State Demographer; Wisconsin State
<br />Demographer
<br />Table 4 -2 indicates that the northeast metro consistently captured about 21 percent of the
<br />overall household growth from 1960 to 1990. Its proportion dropped to 17 percent during the
<br />1990s, but then rebounded to 19 percent in the first part of the current decade.
<br />Meanwhile, Lino Lakes' proportion of northeast metro growth has increased each decade from
<br />1960 to 2000, largely because of transportation improvements and outward growth of the
<br />contiguous edge of the metropolitan area.
<br />Although Lino Lakes may continue to place constraints on the amount of development, it is
<br />conceivable that it could capture upwards of 10 percent of the forecasted growth in the northeast
<br />metro given its supply of undeveloped land and pressure from market forces.
<br />Forecasted growth for the northeast metro is projected to be roughly 37,000 households in the
<br />2000s, 25,000 households in the 2010s, and 27,000 households in the 2020s. At a capture rate
<br />of 10 percent, Lino Lakes could potentially expect household growth of 3,700 households in the
<br />2000s, 2,500 households in the 2010s, and 2,700 households in the 2020s.
<br />4 -8
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