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<br />However, it is important to adjust these figures somewhat. First, development in Lino Lakes
<br />during the first five years of the decade has been slower than projected. Thus, the potential
<br />growth figures are revised downward to account for this, resulting in potential household growth
<br />of between 2,200 and 2,600 households between 2000 and 2010 instead of 3,700 households.
<br />The figures for the 2010s are also revised. The forecasted household growth for the northeast
<br />metro is only 25,000 households or 13% of all metro area growth during this period. This is a
<br />significant and unexplained drop from previous decades, especially given that the projected
<br />proportion for the 2020s increases back up to 19 percent. Therefore, keeping in line with known
<br />development trends, the proportion of household growth that is projected to occur in the
<br />northeast metro during the 2010s is increased from 13 percent to 17 percent. This results in a
<br />projected growth of 31,200 households instead of 25,000 households. Thus, after applying a 10
<br />percent capture rate for Lino Lakes, there is the potential that Lino Lakes will increase by 3,000
<br />to 3,500 households during the 2010s.
<br />In the 2020s, it is anticipated that Lino Lakes' capture rate of northeast metro development will
<br />decrease from 10 percent to 8 percent. This is to reflect that the remaining land available will
<br />begin to be of an in -fill nature and require more time and cost on the part of developers. At an 8
<br />percent capture rate, there is potential growth for 2,000 to 2,500 households between 2020 and
<br />2030.
<br />Potential Growth East and West of the Regional Park
<br />Lino Lakes is bisected by the Chain of Lakes Regional Park, which acts as a barrier between the
<br />east and west halves of the City. Therefore, it may be important to estimate the amount of
<br />potential growth that will occur on either side of the Park. Keep in mind, though, that such
<br />estimates are prone to error since it is nearly impossible to predict when individual landowners
<br />will sell their property. Nonetheless, given the availability of agricultural land as well as currently
<br />vacant land that is classified as rural residential or simply residential, it is possible to be able to
<br />approximate how much of the above potential demand will translate into growth west or east of
<br />the Park.
<br />Based on an analysis of current land use categories, Lino Lakes contains 3,974 acres of
<br />agricultural, vacant rural residential, and vacant residential land. These three categories of land
<br />are presumed to be the categories with which most future development will occur. Of the
<br />approximately 4,000 acres in these categories, 27 percent is located west of the Park and 73
<br />percent is located east of the Park. In the interest of avoiding complex and potentially
<br />problematic assumptions, we assume that any future development from demand will follow these
<br />same proportions (Table 4 -3)
<br />Table 4 -3
<br />Forecasted Demand for Housing in Lino Lakes 2006 -2030
<br />Discussion of how the market -based forecasts were accommodated in the Land Use Plan is
<br />provided on page 4 -13.
<br />4 -9
<br />Lino Lakes Total
<br />Neighborhoods
<br />West of Park
<br />Neighborhoods
<br />East of Park
<br />2006 -2010 Potential Demand
<br />1,200
<br />- 1,400
<br />325
<br />- 380
<br />875
<br />- 1,020
<br />2010 -2020 Potential Demand
<br />3,000
<br />- 3,500
<br />800
<br />- 950
<br />2,200
<br />- 2,550
<br />2020 -2030 Potential Demand
<br />2,050
<br />- 2,500
<br />550
<br />- 675
<br />1,500
<br />- 1,825
<br />2006 -2030 Total Potential
<br />Demand
<br />6,250
<br />- 7,400
<br />1,675
<br />- 2,005
<br />4,575
<br />- 5,395
<br />Discussion of how the market -based forecasts were accommodated in the Land Use Plan is
<br />provided on page 4 -13.
<br />4 -9
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