11/23/1998 Council Packet - Laserfiche WebLink

Home Search

MEMORANDUM date: November 20, 1998 to: Brian Wessel from: Jeff Smyser subject: Growth and MUSA Projections I have looked at the data relevant to growth in Lino Lakes including the numbers provided in the draft Comprehensive Plan. Attached is an analysis of past growth based on census data and future projections based on the data in the Plan. The historical data in the Plan is from the U.S. census and building permit records. The projections (forecasts) for number of households and population are included here for easy reference. I've added a table that shows the projected ten -year increases in households, population, and employment. It also shows the five -year increase from 1995 to (projected) 2000. I've also attached a few graphs that illustrate past growth trends and the reduction in growth envisioned by the plan. These graphs show the ten -year and annual increase in number of households based on the Plan. They show how growth will be slowed significantly. I've also added a graph showing how household size has been decreasing over time. This has been true regionally and nationally, so the Lino Lakes data is consistent with national trends. Please note that the numbers are rounded off for simplicity. The analysis also includes MUSA acreage. The analysis addresses both the MUSA reserve (often referred to as the "bank ") and the existing MUSA acreage that has already been mapped. This data has been updated since the draft Plan was printed, so the MUSA reserve is slightly smaller than what is shown in the Plan (54 acres vs. 96). I've used the most current data available to our staff. Staff discussed the probable demand for additional MUSA. There will be the need for approximately 240 acres of new MUSA to accommodate residential growth in the near future. This figure is based on knowledge of development projects anticipated in the Phase 1 areas. This is a "net" acreage total, in that it does not include wetlands known or suspected in the expected development areas. In addition, staff anticipates a need for approximately 180 additional MUSA acres for Phase 1 commercial /industrial development.