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DETAILS/ANALYSIS: <br />Timeline <br />In September 22, 2025, system statements were released and communities began to review. Lake Elmo staff <br />reviewed the system statements and identified that the population estimate seemed low. <br />On October 24, 2025, Lake Elmo staff sought a meeting with Met Council staff to discuss the implications. <br />Several questions were sent to the Met Council in anticipation of meeting: <br />What data sources/trends informed the population and household estimates? <br />What happens if development exceeds forecasted growth? <br />On October 28, 2025, City planning staff and the Met Council sector representative, Emma Dvorak met to discus <br />these questions. Regional trends were cited as the primary driver for the downward change in population <br />forecasts. Generally, the feedback was that the Met Council is open to periodic forecast adjustments provided <br />there was rationale supporting a change. Small adjustments can be made administratively, while larger <br />adjustments need to be approved by the Met Council. Given ability of the Met Council to amend the forecasts, it <br />was communicated that the City is not “punished’ if population growth exceeds forecasts. <br />On October 29, 2025, additional follow-up information was provided based on the questions asked to the Met <br />Council. While considerable information was provided on methodology for regional and local forecasts, water <br />systems, water appropriation, or the WBL Memo methodology were not communicated. It was also noted that <br />forecast adjustments could be adjusted unless projected growth outstripped the transportation and wastewater <br />systems serving a community. Water systems were not mentioned. <br />November 21, 2025, the appeals period for the 2025 system statements expired. Prior to this, and based on the <br />communications above, staff determined that an appeal to the forecast found in the system statement would <br />not be necessary. Given the ability to periodically and collaboratively make adjustments, it was concluded that <br />the population could be increased as the City moved through the Comprehensive Planning process when it <br />would have a better idea about needs for forecast adjustments. <br />January 15, 2026, the City of Lake Elmo received the WBL Memo dated October 22, 2025 from City of Hugo staff. <br />This memo, nor any indication of the methodology and position on system statements within, had not been <br />provided in any correspondence prior from the Met Council in the period between the system statements being <br />released and the expiration of the appeal period. At this time, and due to the implications of the Met Council’s <br />policy position, staff began to take considerable efforts to understand what options the City has moving <br />forward. <br />February 19, 2025, the City of Lake Elmo staff met with Met Council Principal Forecaster Todd Graham and <br />sector representative Emma Dvorak to discuss population forecasts and options the City has. Prior to this <br />meeting, staff compiled data on development projections and permitting history which support a higher <br />population forecast. Met Council staff agreed to an interim adjustment of Lake Elmo’s population forecast.