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March 6, 2026, City of Lake Elmo staff received an email from Angela Torres, the options for the City of Lake <br />Elmo would be to adjust its 2030 and 2040 decade forecasts as follows: <br />Raise the 2030 forecast to 7,200 households @ 2.66 average household size = 19,200 pop. Of this <br />number, 2,472 households unsewered and the remainder sewer-serviced. <br />Adjust the 2040 forecast to 8,250 households @ 2.59 average household size = 21,400 pop. Of this <br />number, 2,200 households unsewered and the remainder sewer-serviced. <br />The Met Council has not changed its position on increasing population estimates until June 2027, after which, <br />the White Bear Lake working group is expected to have identified a solution and timeline to resolve issues of <br />water availability in the White Bear Lake Area. <br />White Bear Lake Memo (WBL Memo) <br />Attached to this report is the Forecast Methodology for the White Bear Lake Area Communities (WBL Memo) <br />which documents the methodology and policy position of the Met Council. Generally, the WBL Memo can be <br />summarized as follows: <br />Summary of overall methodology used in regional/local population forecasts. <br />Reference to legislatively directed White Bear Lake Comprehensive Plan Group – deadline of June 30, <br />2027 for completion of a long term plan with supporting analysis, to convert some or all wells to surface <br />water. <br />Policy positions: <br />o “Until the White Bear Lake Area Work Group concludes and there is an identified response to <br />legislative direction and judicial decisions, the Met Council determined it prudent to withhold its <br />consent of additional growth in local jurisdictions affected by the White Bear Lake Area Court <br />decision until the Council is assured additional growth does not conflict with Court orders that <br />cities must abide.” <br />o “as it relates to requesting an upward adjustment to forecasts for growth in this area prior to <br />completion of the White Bear Lake Area Comprehensive Plan being prepared with assistance <br />from the legislatively identified Work Group Members and modification of the court order, <br />communities should be aware that the Council will only consider forecast adjustments in the <br />future, not during System Statements review. If a request is made, it may only be considered <br />after modification of the court order, a change in local conditions, or a solution to water supply <br />constraints are determined and implemented.” <br />The Bottom Line for Lake Elmo <br />The Met Council refuses to allow for a higher population projection than the City’s 2040 plan provides, but has <br />agreed that the September 2025 forecasts are low. The City has the option from the Met Council to use the <br />numbers from its Thrive 2040 plan, ending at a total of 21,400 by 2040. For the time being, the City may need to <br />work with the following projections by decade: <br />2030: 19,200 (7,200 households @ 2.66 average household size)